Oil markets wobble as Iran war tightens Hormuz and China cools demand

Global oil markets are caught between a supply shock from the Iran war and a stubborn demand slump, led by China. After Hormuz briefly reopened, hundreds of millions of barrels moved, but buyers largely stayed away, forcing steep discounts and leaving some oil stranded on tankers. Iran has pushed its crude toward China, which has pared purchases as EV growth and refinery limits cap demand, aided by large Chinese stockpiles. Overall demand is about 4 million barrels per day lower than prewar levels, while regional refinery attacks keep supply volatile. With inventories like the US SPR at low levels and forecasters divided on the rebound (IEA, JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs), any price recovery hinges on China restocking and broader demand revival, a path still uncertain as geopolitical tensions persist.