Fox News Poll Shows Talarico Holds Slim Edge in Texas Senate Race

Key points

• Talarico leads Paxton 51% to 49% among likely voters, a margin within the error of sampling.
• Talarico has a net positive favorability rating (+8), while Paxton is underwater (-18).
• Democrats show higher enthusiasm and certainty to vote compared to Republicans.
• Talarico leads among Black, Hispanic, younger, and moderate voters; Paxton leads among rural, older, and white evangelical voters.
• Economic hardship is the top issue, with voters falling behind financially favoring Talarico by 32 points.

Background

The Texas Senate race has been a tight contest for months, with multiple polls in September showing Talarico holding a narrow lead or a dead heat with Paxton. Previous polls, including those from Emerson College and SoCal Strategies, indicated the race was within single-digit margins. The 2026 midterm is seen as a potential Democratic breakthrough in a traditionally Republican state, with the last Democrat winning statewide office in 1994.

How outlets are covering it

Fox News and USA Today emphasize the narrowness of the race and the impact of voter enthusiasm and favorability. TIME Magazine highlights Talarico's strategy to build a broad coalition beyond his base, noting his efforts to appeal to Black voters and moderates, as well as his attempts to soften past positions on controversial issues. The sources agree on the tight polling but differ in emphasis: Fox News and USA Today focus on the data and demographic breakdowns, while TIME provides a deeper look at Talarico's campaign strategy and the challenges he faces in Texas.

Why it matters

The Texas Senate race is a pivotal contest in the 2026 midterms, with the potential to shift the balance of power in the U.S. Senate. A Democratic win in Texas would be a historic upset, ending decades of Republican dominance in the state. The outcome could also signal a broader shift in voter sentiment, particularly regarding economic concerns and the influence of President Trump's approval ratings.

What to watch

The race will likely remain close until Election Day on November 3, 2026. Both campaigns are expected to intensify their efforts, with Republicans pouring significant resources into ads to support Paxton. The outcome will depend on voter turnout, particularly among Democratic and Republican base voters, as well as the ability of each candidate to appeal to undecided and crossover voters.