Leaked Audio: Paxton Blames DC Control, Cornyn, and Gas Prices for Texas Senate Struggles

Key points

• Paxton stated at a September fundraiser that he has 'never been in a race where I felt less control' because messaging is coming from Washington.
• Paxton accused outgoing Senator John Cornyn of wanting him to lose, citing a reported incident where Cornyn allegedly reacted angrily to a supporter’s attempt to thank him for backing Paxton.
• Paxton identified high gas and diesel prices, along with the Iran war, as the primary factors dragging down his polling numbers.
• Polls show a tight race, with Talarico leading by small margins in surveys from Fox News, The New York Times, and Marist University.
• Paxton’s campaign dismissed the audio as 'a story that doesn’t exist,' while Cornyn’s representative denied the reported restaurant confrontation.

Background

This race is critical for the Republican Party’s Senate majority. Texas has not elected a Democrat to statewide office since 1994, but the state is now pivotal for 2026 midterms. Paxton and Cornyn have a long history of conflict, dating back to Paxton’s 2023 impeachment trial and a 2022 gun safety law. Paxton defeated Cornyn in a primary runoff after President Trump endorsed Paxton, but Cornyn has since refused to actively support Paxton. Previous archive coverage noted Paxton’s complaints about the Republican National Convention hurting his polling and his private stance on mandatory spending cuts.

How outlets are covering it

CNN and Politico emphasize Paxton’s lack of control over his campaign and his specific grievances against Cornyn. The Guardian highlights the broader issue of outside influence from Washington, noting that Paxton did not explicitly name Trump’s team but discussed national political environments. Axios focuses on economic factors, with Paxton blaming gas prices and the Iran war for his polling struggles. All outlets agree that the race is tight and that Paxton’s private remarks contrast with his public messaging. Cornyn’s representative and Paxton’s campaign both denied the accuracy of the specific anecdotes in the audio, with Cornyn’s side claiming the restaurant incident did not happen and Paxton’s side calling the recordings 'manipulated nonsense.'

Why it matters

The Texas Senate race is a bellwether for Republican control of the Senate in 2026. Paxton’s struggles with his own party base, including former Cornyn supporters, and his inability to control his campaign narrative could impact the outcome. If Talarico wins, it would be the first Democrat elected to the U.S. Senate from Texas since the 1980s, potentially shifting the balance of power in Congress. The leaked audio reveals deep internal divisions within the Republican Party in Texas, which could affect voter turnout and down-ballot support.

What to watch

The race will conclude in November 2026. Paxton is expected to continue campaigning with Trump’s support, including a recent rally in San Antonio. The outcome will depend on whether Republican voters in Texas turn out in sufficient numbers, given concerns about Paxton’s appeal to non-MAGA Republicans. Talarico is appealing to Cornyn’s supporters and emphasizing economic issues. The next few weeks will likely see more spending from national Republican groups and potential further leaks or controversies from both campaigns.