Leaked Audio Shows Paxton Blaming Trump Convention for Polling Dips

Key points

• The New York Times published audio of Paxton telling donors the convention 'dropped our numbers.'
• Trump deflected questions, calling the convention 'amazing,' while Vance dismissed the remarks as unimportant.
• Paxton's campaign released an internal poll showing a three-point lead, contradicting public polling trends.
• National Republican groups have spent over $147 million on airtime to support Paxton against Talarico.
• Paxton faces criticism over the Adam Hoffman case and has declined multiple debate invitations.

Background

Paxton secured the Republican nomination after Trump endorsed him over incumbent John Cornyn in a contentious primary. Prior coverage highlighted a significant fundraising gap, with Talarico out-raising Paxton, though Trump-aligned super PACs like MAGA Inc. have since deployed substantial funds to close the gap. The race is considered a key battleground for the GOP's Senate majority.

How outlets are covering it

The Texas Tribune and CBS News reported the leaked audio and the administration's dismissal, noting Trump's lack of immediate response. New York Magazine argued the convention actively damaged Republican prospects by highlighting Trump's unpopularity, contrasting with the campaign's claim of improved numbers. CBS News included Cornyn's reaction, who expressed concern about the risk of a Democratic victory in Texas for the first time since 1994. All sources agree that while national spending favors Paxton, public polling data remains unfavorable.

Why it matters

The Texas Senate seat is critical for the balance of power in the U.S. Senate. Paxton's struggle to gain traction despite massive financial backing from the White House suggests deeper issues with Republican appeal in the state. If Paxton loses, it could signal a broader shift in Texas politics and threaten the GOP's majority in the Senate.

What to watch

Early voting begins in less than three weeks. Trump is scheduled to visit a truck factory in Denton, and VP Vance is set to appear in Harlingen to boost Republican candidates. The outcome of the race will depend on whether national spending can overcome local polling deficits and whether Paxton agrees to a debate with Talarico.