Sanders and Khanna Rally for California Billionaire Tax as Polls Show Narrow Lead

Key points

• Proposition 40 proposes a one-time 5% tax on Californians with a net worth exceeding $1.1 billion, with 90% of revenue directed to healthcare.
• A September 2026 NBCUniversal poll found 48% of likely voters support the measure, 38% oppose it, and 14% are undecided, giving 'yes' a 10-point lead.
• The 'No on Prop 40' campaign has raised over $252 million, largely from billionaires, while the 'Yes on 40' campaign has raised approximately $32.4 million.
• Governor Gavin Newsom opposes the state-level tax, arguing it is poorly written and could drive wealth out of the state, while supporting a national wealth tax.
• Senator Bernie Sanders and Representative Ro Khanna are campaigning in California, with Khanna challenging Newsom to a debate over the issue.

Background

The debate over Proposition 40 has intensified since August 2026, when San Francisco’s Democratic Party opposed the state measure in favor of a national wealth tax. Earlier polls in September 2026 showed the measure with a 52% support rate, but also highlighted the threat of counter-measures funded by Google co-founder Sergey Brin. Concerns about a mass exodus of billionaires, including Larry Page and Peter Thiel, have been a central theme in the opposition’s strategy, with nonpartisan analysts warning of potential long-term revenue losses.

How outlets are covering it

Supporters, including Bernie Sanders and Ro Khanna, view the tax as a necessary response to federal healthcare cuts and a test of democratic resilience against billionaire influence. They argue that the massive spending by opponents is counterproductive. Opponents, led by Governor Gavin Newsom and groups like Building a Better California, contend that the state measure is flawed and could be avoided by relocating, whereas a national tax would be more effective. Newsom’s camp argues the state measure will harm California’s economy, while supporters dismiss this as a tactic to protect donor interests. Some labor unions, such as the California Teachers Association, oppose the measure, citing concerns that it prioritizes healthcare over education and food assistance.

Why it matters

The outcome of Proposition 40 will determine whether California becomes the first state to implement a wealth tax, potentially setting a precedent for other states and influencing the 2028 presidential race. The measure’s success or failure will also impact California’s budget, particularly its ability to offset federal Medicaid cuts, and will test the limits of state power in taxing the ultra-wealthy.

What to watch

Early voting has begun in California, and the campaign is expected to intensify in the weeks leading up to the November election. The outcome will depend on whether the 'yes' campaign can overcome the significant spending advantage of the 'no' campaign and persuade undecided voters. The results will also have implications for the 2028 presidential race, as both Newsom and Khanna are potential candidates.