Talarico Edges Paxton in Fox News Texas Senate Poll as Democratic Enthusiasm Grows

A Fox News poll of 1,006 Texas registered voters (July 23–27, 2026) shows a tight Senate race: Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton 51% to 48%, a 3-point edge fueled by higher Democratic enthusiasm and strong independent support (Talarico 53%-47% among the most motivated voters). Paxton leads among White evangelicals, rural voters, and older men, while Talarico dominates with Black voters, Hispanics, moderates, women, and younger voters. Hispanics back Talarico 59-41, and inflation is the top issue for many voters. Personal ratings tilt against Paxton and in favor of Talarico (Paxton -6 net, Talarico +6). In the governor’s race, Abbott leads Hinojosa by 1 point. The survey notes an enthusiasm gap and a margin of error ±3 percentage points.