Trump returns to Texas for San Antonio rally as GOP scrambles to defend Senate seat

Key points

• Trump will speak at the Freeman Coliseum in San Antonio on Wednesday, joining Paxton and congressional candidate Carlos De La Cruz.
• The visit follows a Thursday stop at a Peterbilt truck plant in Denton, where Trump praised Paxton while also calling him a 'pain in the ass.'
• Republicans have spent nearly $600 million on ads in Texas, with a super PAC investing $125 million since September to boost Paxton.
• Polls indicate Talarico holds a narrow lead, and Trump’s approval rating in Texas has dropped to 42% due to economic concerns and the Iran War.
• The race is critical for the GOP, as Democrats have not won a Texas Senate seat since 1988.

Background

Texas was a safe Republican state in 2024, with Trump winning by 14 points, largely due to gains among Hispanic voters in South Texas. However, the 2026 midterms have transformed the state into a top battleground. Recent archive coverage notes that Trump headlined a two-day GOP convention in Dallas in September, pledging aggressive support for Paxton despite public jokes about his appearance. The current campaign surge reflects a broader Republican effort to mobilize voters in key districts, including the newly redrawn 35th Congressional District in Bexar County, where Hispanic voters are a decisive factor.

How outlets are covering it

The Washington Post emphasizes the financial scale of the Republican effort, noting that over $800 million in ads have aired or been booked in Texas, with Republicans accounting for nearly $600 million. The Texas Tribune highlights the strategic importance of San Antonio, pointing out that it contains two of the state’s most competitive House races and that Trump’s approval rating has fallen to 42% in the state. Roll Call focuses on the interpersonal tension between Trump and Paxton, citing leaked audio in which Paxton suggested the convention hurt his numbers, and noting Trump’s public mockery of Paxton’s appearance and demeanor despite his endorsement. All sources agree that the race is too close to call, with the Cook Political Report rating it a 'Toss Up' and Inside Elections listing it as 'Lean R.'

Why it matters

The outcome of the Texas Senate race could determine whether the GOP retains its majority in the U.S. Senate. A loss for Paxton would mark the first time Democrats have won a Texas Senate seat since 1988, signaling a significant shift in the state’s political landscape. Additionally, the race reflects broader national trends, with Trump’s declining approval ratings and economic concerns influencing voter sentiment in a state that was previously considered a Republican stronghold.

What to watch

Trump is expected to continue his campaign tour, with stops in Oklahoma and Alabama planned for later this week. The focus will remain on mobilizing Republican voters in key districts, particularly in South Texas, where Hispanic voters are a decisive factor. The race will likely remain tight through Election Day, with both sides spending heavily on ads and ground game efforts.