Trump’s Texas Jabs Mask Paxton’s Private Fears Over Convention Damage

Key points

• Trump joked about Paxton’s demeanor at a Denton, Texas event on October 1, stating he is a 'pain in the ass' but remains loyal.
• The New York Times reported that Paxton privately told donors the Dallas convention negatively impacted his polling numbers.
• Trump has not spoken to Paxton since the audio leak, according to CNN, and has not addressed the content of the recording publicly.
• Paxton trails Democratic challenger James Talarico in recent polls, with a significant gap in campaign funds compared to his opponent.
• Trump announced a 32-day campaign tour to support Republican candidates, including a stop in Texas, to counter declining approval ratings.

Background

This development follows months of public mockery by Trump toward Paxton, a strategy previously analyzed as either a quirk or a tactic to deflect blame. Earlier coverage noted a widening fundraising gap and internal GOP doubts about Paxton’s viability, particularly after Trump chose him over veteran Senator John Cornyn. The current situation highlights the tension between public support and private skepticism within the party.

How outlets are covering it

CNN emphasizes the public nature of Trump’s insults and his lack of direct communication with Paxton following the leak. The New York Times focuses on the private admissions by Paxton regarding the negative impact of the convention. El País provides a broader strategic context, noting that while Trump is touring to save the party, internal figures like Karl Rove and Senator Thom Tillis argue that choosing Paxton over Cornyn was a 'colossal mistake' that has cost the party millions. The sources collectively highlight a disconnect between Trump’s public boosterism and the private concerns of the candidate and party strategists.

Why it matters

The Texas Senate seat is a critical battleground for the 2026 midterms. If the GOP loses this seat, it would mark the first time they have lost a state election in Texas since 1994. The effectiveness of Trump’s campaign strategy, including his public jabs and the Dallas convention, is being questioned as polls show Paxton trailing and fundraising gaps widening, potentially threatening the party’s majority in the Senate.

What to watch

Trump is expected to continue his 32-day campaign tour, including a stop in Texas, to boost Republican candidates. The outcome of the Texas race will depend on whether Trump’s efforts can close the polling and fundraising gaps, or if the negative sentiment from the convention and public jabs will continue to hinder Paxton’s campaign.