Texas schools confront historic enrollment drop as demographics shift

Texas public schools lost about 76,000 students this year—the first non-pandemic decline in roughly four decades—driven largely by Hispanic students (81% of the drop). Texas 2036’s analysis projects around 100,000 fewer students by the end of the decade, though some models foresee growth later. The declines come amid slower birth rates and heightened immigration enforcement, with districts facing funding pressures as attendance-based funding and new school vouchers reshuffle options for families.