Padres' Post-All-Star Surge Sets Up NLDS Clash With 103-Win Brewers

Key points

• Padres went 43-18 since July 23, including a 2-0 sweep of the Cubs in the Wild Card Series.
• Fernando Tatis Jr. hit 25 home runs after his first one on May 30, posting a .538 slugging average in his final 104 games.
• Brewers won 103 games, the most in MLB, and are favored due to ace Jacob Misiorowski and a deep rotation.
• Padres possess the best bullpen in baseball, led by Mason Miller, but lack starting pitching depth.
• The series begins October 3 in Milwaukee; both teams have never won a World Series.

Background

The Padres entered the 2026 season poorly, ranking last in batting average and runs scored at the All-Star break. They previously swept the Cubs in the Wild Card Series, outscoring them 21-8. The Brewers, who clinched the NL Central title for the fourth consecutive year, have been the most consistent team in baseball over the last two seasons, winning 97 games in 2025 and 103 in 2026.

How outlets are covering it

CBS Sports emphasizes Tatis Jr.'s individual turnaround as the primary engine for the Padres' success, highlighting his 40-homer pace since May. USA TODAY focuses on the contrast between the Padres' high-payroll star power and the Brewers' blue-collar, small-ball style, noting the Brewers' superior regular-season consistency. SB Nation argues the Padres are not true underdogs, citing their superior second-half WAR and the best bullpen in the majors, while acknowledging their starting pitching is a weakness compared to the Brewers' rotation. The San Diego Union-Tribune highlights the cultural and historical significance of the Padres' playoff run, noting Petco Park's sellout streak and the franchise's 58-year wait for a World Series title.

Why it matters

This series determines which team advances to the NLCS against the Dodgers or the winner of the Philadelphia-Atlanta Wild Card series. It represents a clash between the league's best regular-season team and the hottest late-season team, with both franchises seeking their first World Series championship.

What to watch

Game 1 of the NLDS is scheduled for Saturday, October 3, in Milwaukee. The Padres aim to leverage their momentum and bullpen depth to upset the favored Brewers, while the Brewers look to use their pitching and regular-season consistency to advance.