DOT Finalizes 'Freedom Means Affordable Cars' Rule, Setting 2031 Fuel Economy Target at 34.9 MPG

Key points

• The new rule sets a 2031 fleet average fuel economy target of 34.9 mpg, a significant drop from the previous 50.4 mpg target.
• The administration claims the rule will reduce the average cost of a new vehicle by $1,300 and save $138 billion over five years.
• The rule eliminates the CAFE credit trading program starting in model year 2028, removing incentives for electric vehicle adoption.
• Vehicle classification criteria will change in 2030 to reclassify many crossovers as passenger cars rather than light trucks.
• Critics, including the American Lung Association, argue the rule will increase healthcare costs and air pollution.

Background

This finalization follows earlier approvals in September 2026 where President Trump signed off on weaker fuel standards, reversing the Biden administration's push for higher efficiency and electric vehicle adoption. Previous coverage noted that these changes effectively ended federal mandates for EV adoption and were framed as cost-saving measures for consumers and manufacturers, despite concerns about global competitiveness.

How outlets are covering it

The Department of Transportation and the Trump administration frame the rule as a deregulatory action that restores consumer choice and lowers vehicle prices, citing potential savings of $138 billion over five years. In contrast, The Verge and Ars Technica highlight that the new 34.9 mpg target is lower than the 40.4 mpg standard set in 2020, marking a regression to levels not seen since 2014. Environmental and health groups, such as the American Lung Association, argue that the rule will increase healthcare costs and air pollution, while Ars Technica notes that the move may lead some automakers to drop electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles entirely. Yahoo Finance reports that General Motors expects technology costs to drop by $20 billion through 2031 due to the new emissions rules, indicating industry support for the changes.

Why it matters

The finalization of these CAFE standards marks a pivotal shift in US automotive policy, potentially slowing the transition to electric vehicles and increasing reliance on gasoline. The rule's impact on vehicle prices, fuel costs, and environmental health will affect consumers, automakers, and the broader economy for the next decade.

What to watch

Automakers will adjust production lines and vehicle classifications in response to the new standards, particularly the reclassification of crossovers as passenger cars starting in 2030. The elimination of credit trading in 2028 will force manufacturers to focus on fuel-saving technologies across their entire fleets. Critics and environmental groups may pursue legal challenges or advocacy campaigns to reverse the rule, while the administration will monitor vehicle prices and fuel consumption to assess the rule's impact.