UN: 1.5°C overshoot appears likely, but a cooling path could still save the century

UNEP warns the world is likely to cross the 1.5°C threshold in the next few years, but outlines a path to cool back below that level by century’s end through rapid fossil-fuel phaseout and large-scale carbon dioxide removal. Under current policies, warming could reach about 2.6°C by 2100, while a more ambitious route might cap peak warming near 1.8°C mid-century. An overshoot would bring more extreme weather, sea‑level rise and biodiversity loss, with limited benefit from tree planting alone; transformative governance, finance and novel removal methods are needed, though the 1.5°C target remains the goal and action must accelerate.