US Yen Intervention Likely About $500 Million, Far Less Than Forecast

Alphaville analyzes the size of the US Treasury’s yen intervention, noting early public clues pointed to $5–$10 billion, but after reviewing July ESF notes and weekly Treasury releases, the best-guess size is roughly $500 million—tiny relative to the $26.3 billion maximum. The note timing and reporting gaps (spot vs forwards) complicate exact sizing, and Brad Setser arrived at a similar figure.