Five-year mortgage-rate outlook: rates ease slowly but stay high

Mortgage rates track the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield with a spread, and economists’ five-year forecasts project the 10-year yield easing to about 3.9% by 2027. Using that with a suggested spread, the base-case 30-year fixed rate rises from roughly 6.25% in 2026 to about 5.70% by 2030. A bull case imagines around 5.00% by 2030, while a bear case could push rates toward 7.00% by 2027 before easing to about 6.6% by 2030. The article stresses these are long-range estimates and rates are unlikely to fall to 3% in the next five years, influenced by inflation and Federal Reserve policy. For buyers, the decision to lock in depends on how long they intend to stay in the home and which fixed term aligns with their budget.