All articles tagged with #mortgage rates
Capital Economics forecasts a prolonged US housing slowdown through 2028: mortgage rates staying above 6% for at least two more years, home prices flat in 2026 with a gradual rebound to about 2.5% in 2027 and 4% in 2028, and sales around 4.7 million by late 2026—the slowest pace since 2011.
U.S. pending home sales declined 2.3% in July to the second-lowest on record, with the West hitting a new record low and the South and Northeast also down, as mortgage rates sit around 6.4%–6.7% and supply remains elevated. The market remains embedded in a multi-year lull since the 2020–22 price boom, and high contract cancellations suggest weak closings ahead.
Home Depot reported a stronger-than-expected Q2 with revenue of $47.86B and 1.7% comparable-store growth driven by demand for smaller projects; US comps rose 1.3%, transactions declined 1% but average ticket rose to about $92.50. The company kept its 2026 outlook of 2.5%–4.5% sales growth and flat-to-up 2% comps, aided by tariff refunds and a national express-delivery launch. Yet the housing market remains weak due to higher mortgage rates and financing costs, weighing on bigger-ticket projects and overall demand.
Investor sentiment in the single-family housing market has dropped to an all-time low, with 45% saying conditions have worsened and only 26% saying they’re better. Financial headwinds—higher mortgage rates, rising insurance and renovation costs—and Iran-related geopolitical tensions are driving pessimism, while housing purchases fell in Q1 2026 and about one-third of investors plan no acquisitions this year. More than half expect prices to rise in the next six months, which could raise acquisition costs even as property values may increase. The shift is most pronounced among small- to mid-sized investors, with large institutions facing different constraints under new housing legislation.
Redfin’s July 2026 snapshot shows a buyer drought and a seller-heavy national picture: about 967,000 active US buyers—the lowest since Redfin began tracking—roughly 34% fewer buyers than sellers, with mortgage rates at a year-high that keep monthly payments uncomfortable. Nationwide, sellers outnumbered buyers by about 51.3%, though most metros (39 of 49) were still ranked as buyer’s markets. Nassau County, NY led as the strongest seller’s market, while Texas Sun Belt metros (Houston, San Antonio, Austin) posted 100%+-plus seller advantages as new homebuilding comes online. In short, affordability pressures and rising rates are cooling demand, making many markets tougher for buyers and, in some areas, more favorable to sellers.
Redfin's July housing report shows a record gap: about 51% more sellers than buyers nationwide (966,752 buyers vs 1,462,921 sellers), with 39 of 49 metros in buyer's markets; Miami, Nashville and several Texas metros lead, as high mortgage rates curb demand and give remaining buyers more negotiating power, suggesting a Labor Day window could be favorable for deals.
New data show Manhattan’s median rent rose to $5,000 in July (6.4% YoY) and Brooklyn’s to $4,500 (17% YoY), marking new records as mortgage-rate pressures keep would-be buyers renting. The 2025 FARE Act may be shrinking inventory by removing broker commissions, and landlords may hold units to dodge fees; only 6,000 Manhattan leases and 3,000 Brooklyn leases were signed in July, suggesting rents could keep rising through the fall.
An economist warns the US housing market is showing a 2008-style crack as falling annual home sales—now below 2008 levels—occur amid higher mortgage rates and a lock-in effect that keeps listings scarce. While July prices rose 2% year over year, tight supply and weak demand could push prices lower (roughly 2%), potentially dampening the wealth effect and signaling broader economic weakness ahead.
Mortgage rates retraced to three-week lows after July's CPI print came in line with expectations, with the bond market absorbing the data and leaving little surprise, while the 30-year fixed rate sits around 6.74% (down 0.05) as traders await further inflation signals.
July existing single-family home sales fell 1.9% to a 3.69 million annual pace, pushing the market deeper into a slump as inventory rose to 4.6 months—the highest since 2016—while condo supply reached a 14-year high. Mortgage rates sit around 6.69% amid persistent inflation, dampening demand even as the national median price rose 1.9% year over year to $440,300 and regional prices showed wide variation.
U.S. existing-home sales fell 1.7% in July to a 4.06 million SAAR, the second straight monthly drop, as mortgage rates climbed to 6.66% and prices rose 2% year over year to a median of $434,100; year-to-date sales are up 2.4%, but affordability remains the main drag on activity, with economists noting the higher rates reduce buyers’ purchasing power and Zillow signaling a market peak may have occurred.
In June, 38 of the 50 largest U.S. housing markets saw homes selling below asking, led by Florida and Texas metros (Miami and West Palm Beach at about 4.6%). While San Francisco, New York, and Boston saw prices come in above asking, the national share of homes selling above asking dropped to roughly 25% from the 2022 peak. Higher mortgage costs and slower price adjustments are widening buyers’ negotiating room, though leverage varies by market and property.
A Redfin analysis shows that in June 2026 a household would need about $109,796 per year to afford the median-priced U.S. home while spending no more than 30% of income on housing, with median income around $87,599 and home prices up 2.2%. The result is a roughly $22,200 gap to affordability, though 24 of 46 major metros saw improvements and Seattle led the gains; San Francisco remains the least affordable major market, requiring about $453,205 in income. Only three metros (St. Louis, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh) had median incomes that exceeded the amount needed to buy locally.
Austin’s housing market has cooled dramatically since its 2022 peak: typical home prices are down about 25%, July prices were roughly 12% lower than a year ago, and the rental market is softer as a surge of new homes hits the market. A Realtor.com analysis shows about 79% of homes bought in 2022 are worth less than their sale price, while buyers face higher mortgage rates and builders’ incentives that blur resale competitiveness. Yet analysts say Austin’s fundamentals—millennials, high-income workers, and a steady employer base—sup port a longer-term rebound, aided by rate buydowns and measured development, though a quick recovery isn’t expected.
Mortgage rates rose to 6.81% for 30-year conforming loans—the highest in more than a year—driving total mortgage applications down 2.9% week over week and 5% from a year ago; refinance applications fell 2% (9% YoY) and purchase loans fell 4% (3% YoY) as higher rates squeeze demand. Some early-week relief followed as oil prices dropped and rate moves cooled, according to Mortgage News Daily.