ASML Lifts 2026 Sales Outlook Amid 2030 Order Interest, But Q3 Revenue Miss Triggers Sector Sell-Off
ASML Holding raised its 2026 sales forecast for the third time, citing strong AI-driven demand, but its stock fell after third-quarter revenue missed estimates. The company noted customer interest in orders through 2030 and is exploring capacity expansions beyond previous targets.
Key points
- ASML raised its 2026 net sales forecast to 44-45 billion euros, lifting the lower bound from 43 billion euros.
- Third-quarter net sales were 11.66 billion euros, missing the 11.72 billion euro consensus, though net profit of 4.96 billion euros beat the 4.1 billion euro estimate.
- CEO Christophe Fouquet stated that some customers are expressing interest in placing orders for 2029 and 2030 due to AI investment visibility.
- The company is investigating ways to increase 2028 capacity beyond the previously forecast 30% increase to meet unmet demand.
- ASML shares fell 1.86% in New York, while the broader semiconductor equipment sector saw declines in Micron, SanDisk, and Intel.
Background
ASML previously raised its sales and gross margin forecasts in July 2026 as AI-related chip demand remained strong. The company holds a monopoly on extreme ultraviolet lithography machines, which are critical for advanced semiconductor manufacturing. Recent market volatility in the semiconductor sector, including a recent slide in Broadcom shares after a forecast miss, has heightened investor sensitivity to guidance changes in the AI supply chain.
How outlets are covering it
CNBC emphasized the long-term demand visibility, highlighting that customers are already looking at orders for 2029 and 2030, which suggests sustained AI investment. Yahoo Finance focused on the immediate market reaction, noting that despite the raised forecast, the Q3 revenue miss triggered a sell-off in ASML and related semiconductor stocks like Micron and Intel. Both sources agree on the strength of underlying demand but differ in emphasis: CNBC views the order backlog as a positive signal for future growth, while Yahoo Finance highlights the short-term negative market impact of the revenue miss.
Why it matters
ASML's performance is a key indicator of global AI infrastructure spending. The company's ability to expand capacity and secure orders through 2030 suggests that AI-driven chip demand remains robust, despite short-term market fluctuations. The sector-wide sell-off indicates that investors are closely watching for any signs of demand cooling in the semiconductor supply chain.
What to watch
Investors will monitor ASML's fourth-quarter results, with net sales expected between 14.2 and 15.2 billion euros. The company's progress in expanding 2028 capacity and its ability to meet customer demand for High NA EUV machines will be critical. Additionally, the market will watch for any further signs of demand cooling in the broader semiconductor sector, particularly in memory and chipmaking stocks.
- ASML Raises Sales Forecast For A Third Time, But Q3 Revenue Miss Sends Stock Lower: Earnings Selloff Spreads To MU, SNDK, INTC Yahoo Finance
- ASML says it's getting order interest through 2030 as profit smashes expectations CNBC
- ASML says AI demand will exceed chip-tool capacity through 2028 Reuters
- ASML Rises as Chip-Gear Maker Can’t Keep Up With AI Demand Bloomberg.com
- Europe, U.S. futures rise as semiconductor supplier ASML beats expectations Fortune
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