Micron's Record Q4 and 2028 Supply Crunch

Key points

• Micron's fiscal Q4 2026 revenue reached a record $54.23 billion, up 31% sequentially and 379% year-over-year, with adjusted EPS of $33.42, beating the $31.16 forecast.
• CEO Sanjay Mehrotra stated that supply-demand conditions will be tighter in fiscal 2027 and 2028, with 75% of 2027 output already committed and HBM prices significantly higher than 2026 levels.
• Micron's fiscal 2026 full-year revenue hit $133.2 billion, up 256% year-over-year, with gross margins expanding to 81.1% from 41.1% in fiscal 2025.
• The company guided for fiscal Q1 2027 revenue of $61.5 billion and adjusted EPS of $38.15, expecting sequential revenue growth throughout fiscal 2027.
• Micron plans to increase capital return from December 9, 2026, and aims to return 100% of excess cash to shareholders, primarily through buybacks.

Background

Micron shares recently crossed the $1,000 barrier, reviving stock-split talk, though no split has been announced. Analysts have projected potential returns to $1,600 by 2028, driven by AI memory demand. The company has split its stock three times previously (1994, 1995, 2000).

How outlets are covering it

Yahoo Finance highlighted the potential for Micron's stock to double before 2028, citing $1.7 trillion in reasons, likely referencing market cap or demand. Ars Technica emphasized the ongoing memory shortage, noting that Micron no longer sells consumer RAM and that manufacturing capacity is prioritized for AI and servers. Investing.com focused on the strong earnings beat but noted investor caution regarding heavy capital spending and margin pressures. All sources agree on the tight supply and strong demand for HBM and DRAM through 2028.

Why it matters

The memory shortage impacts consumer devices, raising costs for PCs, smartphones, and gaming consoles. Micron's strong performance and guidance suggest sustained high margins and revenue growth, but also increased capital intensity and potential cyclical risks if supply catches up with demand.

What to watch

Micron will increase capital return from December 9, 2026, and seek additional buyback authorization. The company expects fiscal 2027 to be another record year, with sequential revenue growth and improving gross margins after Q1 2027. New clean rooms for memory manufacturing are planned for 2028, but production ramps will be gradual.