Restarting Gulf Wells Could Outlast Hormuz Crisis

An energy expert warns that reopening the Strait of Hormuz won’t end the Persian Gulf oil crunch. About 5.5–8 million barrels per day of Gulf production are shut in, and restarting those wells is a complex, long process with some output potentially never returning. Even with a political settlement, tanker movement may resume but upstream constraints and refinery needs could keep diesel and jet-fuel shortages for months, delaying a full market recovery. IEA and EIA projections suggest a gradual return to pre-war levels by 2027, but the path is uneven and the energy system could be permanently altered, challenging U.S. energy security despite record domestic production.