Mixed reviews for 'Digger' trigger sharp drop in Tom Cruise's 2027 Oscar odds

Key points

• Digger, a $125 million budget film, received a sharply divided response from early screenings, with critics calling it both a 'brave art film' and a 'hollow misfire.'
• Gold Derby reports that Digger’s Best Picture odds dropped 14% on its combined chart, falling to the No. 8 spot, while its expert-only odds plummeted nearly 45% to No. 9.
• Tom Cruise’s Best Actor odds dipped 9% on the combined chart to No. 3, though he remains in the top five; his expert-only ranking fell nearly 40% to No. 4.
• The film’s Best Director odds for Iñárritu dropped 12% to No. 5 on the combined chart, with Christopher Nolan’s 'The Odyssey' maintaining a dominant lead at 90.2%.
• Supporting cast members John Goodman and Sandra Hüller also saw their odds decline, though Riz Ahmed’s odds received a slight boost following positive social media reactions to his performance.

Background

The 2027 Oscar race has been heavily influenced by strong festival performances, particularly Andrew Scott’s turn in 'Elsinore' at Telluride, which previously shifted the Best Actor landscape. 'Digger' was expected to be a major contender given Cruise’s star power and Iñárritu’s track record, but its divisive reception has introduced significant uncertainty into the race.

How outlets are covering it

Outlets are split on the film's merit. Variety’s Clayton Davis argues that the divisive nature of 'Digger' might actually help Cruise’s campaign by forcing the Academy to debate his performance, noting that the film is an 'actor-driven' risk. The Hollywood Reporter’s James Hibberd highlights the extreme polarization, quoting critics who call it a 'masterpiece' alongside those who predict a 'horrendous' audience score. Gold Derby focuses on the quantitative fallout, noting that while the film’s odds have dropped, its A-list cast and craft elements may still secure nominations in below-the-line categories.

Why it matters

The decline in 'Digger’s' odds signals a potential shift in the 2027 Best Picture and Best Actor races, where consensus favorites like 'The Odyssey' and 'Wild Horse Nine' are currently leading. It also raises questions about whether a polarizing, high-budget film can overcome a negative critical consensus to secure Academy recognition, particularly for a star like Tom Cruise who has yet to win a competitive acting Oscar.

What to watch

The review embargo for 'Digger' lifts on September 29, ahead of its October 2 theatrical release. Industry observers will watch how the film performs with general audiences and whether its craft and acting branches can recover its standing in the weeks leading up to the nominations announcement.