Abbott edges Hinojosa in Texas governor race as funding disputes and tax accusations intensify

Key points

• ReconMR’s Oct. 13 poll of 617 likely voters shows Abbott leading 48% to 47%, a shift from his four-point deficit in September.
• Hinojosa leads independent voters 57% to 34%, while Abbott holds a 25-point lead in rural Texas and leads in Austin, Houston, and San Antonio.
• Abbott’s job approval stands at 48% approve to 51% disapprove, with favorability at 46% favorable to 50% unfavorable.
• The Democratic Governors Association (DGA) has committed $1 million to Hinojosa’s race, down from an initial $10 million request by Latino leaders, sparking accusations of neglect.
• Illinois Governor JB Pritzker contributed $1 million to the DGA and $1.2 million directly to Hinojosa, aiming to bolster the campaign.
• Abbott accused Hinojosa of voting for a state income tax in 2019, citing a 2016 interview; Hinojosa denies supporting such a tax, noting it is constitutionally banned.

Background

Prior to October, polls showed Abbott leading by 7 to 8 points, but recent surveys indicate a narrowing margin. In September, Hinojosa led by four points in a ReconMR poll. The race has become a focal point for Latino voter engagement and national Democratic strategy, with concerns about Texas becoming competitive in presidential elections. Abbott’s approval ratings have improved slightly from September, while Hinojosa’s favorability has declined.

How outlets are covering it

USA TODAY and CNN report on the tight race and funding disputes, with CNN highlighting tensions between national Democrats and Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear over DGA funding. CBS News focuses on Abbott’s accusations regarding Hinojosa’s voting record, emphasizing his claim that she supports a state income tax. While USA TODAY and CNN present the race as statistically tied, CBS News notes Abbott’s confidence in his lead, citing voter reactions to Hinojosa’s policies. All sources agree on the competitive nature of the race but differ in emphasis: USA TODAY and CNN highlight polling and funding, while CBS News focuses on policy disputes and Abbott’s campaign messaging.

Why it matters

The Texas governor’s race is a bellwether for national Democratic performance in 2026 and 2028. A Hinojosa victory would signal Texas’s competitiveness in presidential elections and reflect growing Latino voter influence. Funding disputes within the Democratic Party could impact other races, while Abbott’s accusations may shape voter perceptions of Hinojosa’s policy positions. The outcome will influence control of Texas’s 40 electoral votes and state government policies.

What to watch

Early voting begins Oct. 19, with campaigns expected to intensify efforts to mobilize voters. The DGA may allocate additional funds to Hinojosa if polls remain tight. Abbott and Hinojosa will likely continue debating policy issues, including taxes and border security, as the race approaches Election Day on Nov. 3.