Alaska, Florida, and Wyoming Primaries Test Midterm Dynamics and Trump's Influence

Key points

• Alaska’s non-partisan primary allows the top four candidates to advance to the general election, with Dan Sullivan facing former Rep. Mary Peltola in a race rated as a toss-up by the Cook Political Report.
• Florida’s gubernatorial primary features Byron Donalds, endorsed by Trump, as the favorite, despite concerns from term-limited Gov. Ron DeSantis, while data centers and utility costs have become central issues.
• Wyoming’s Senate race sees Harriet Hageman, backed by Trump, favored to succeed retiring Sen. Cynthia Lummis, with the state’s governor’s race testing Trump’s influence among conservative voters.
• Democrats in Florida are attempting to reverse a rightward shift, with former Rep. David Jolly leading the gubernatorial primary and progressive candidates challenging mainstream Democrats in House races.
• The primaries follow recent contests in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota, where progressive candidates gained ground, influencing Democratic strategy for the midterms.

Background

The 2026 midterms are critical for determining control of Congress during the remainder of President Trump’s term. Recent primaries in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota saw progressive candidates gain ground, signaling a potential shift in Democratic strategy. The Alaska Senate race has been closely watched due to its potential impact on Senate control, with polls showing a tight contest between Dan Sullivan and Mary Peltola. Florida’s political landscape has shifted rightward under Trump, making Democratic gains challenging, while Wyoming remains a reliably Republican state where Trump’s endorsements carry significant weight.

How outlets are covering it

CNBC emphasizes the strategic importance of the Alaska Senate race and the potential impact on Congress, while CNN highlights the contentious nature of Florida’s primaries, including intra-party feuds and the influence of redistricting. AP News focuses on the logistical challenges of the Alaska primary, such as the presence of two candidates named Dan Sullivan, and NBC News underscores the testing of Trump’s endorsement power in Wyoming. All sources agree on the significance of these primaries in shaping the midterms but differ in their emphasis on specific issues and candidates.

Why it matters

The outcomes of these primaries will determine the candidates for the November midterms, which will decide control of Congress and influence policy directions under President Trump. The Alaska Senate race is particularly critical for Senate control, while Florida’s primaries test the viability of Democratic strategies in a rightward-shifting state. Wyoming’s races highlight the enduring influence of Trump in conservative states, with implications for future Republican strategies. These results will also signal the direction of Democratic strategy, particularly regarding progressive versus centrist approaches, and the impact of redistricting on congressional representation.

What to watch

The primary results will determine the candidates for the November midterms, with the Alaska Senate race likely being a key battleground for Senate control. Florida’s gubernatorial and Senate races will test the viability of Democratic strategies in a rightward-shifting state, while Wyoming’s races will highlight the enduring influence of Trump in conservative states. The outcomes will also signal the direction of Democratic strategy, particularly regarding progressive versus centrist approaches, and the impact of redistricting on congressional representation. Further developments will include the general election campaigns and the potential for shifts in voter sentiment based on the primary results.