Alaska Senate Race Remains Uncalled as Peltola Leads Sullivan in Ranked-Choice Count

Key points

• Mary Peltola leads Dan S. Sullivan by nearly four percentage points in incomplete tallies, but neither has reached the 50% threshold required to avoid ranked-choice voting.
• Final results are expected by November 18 due to the logistical difficulty of transporting ballots across Alaska’s vast, roadless terrain, with some mail ballots arriving up to 15 days late.
• The Associated Press has called the governor’s race for Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, who holds over 50% of first-choice votes, while the U.S. House race remains too close to call.
• Legal challenges regarding a second candidate named Dan J. Sullivan have been dismissed by a federal judge, though the Justice Department is appealing and criminal investigations continue.

Background

Recent coverage highlighted a federal judge dismissing a Justice Department lawsuit aimed at blocking certification of the election. Earlier reports noted that Peltola had already surpassed the combined vote totals of both Sullivan candidates, though the race remained too close to call due to pending ranked-choice tabulation and ongoing investigations into the recruitment of the duplicate candidate.

How outlets are covering it

The New York Times emphasizes the statistical lead Peltola holds and the likelihood of her eventual victory, while the BBC focuses on the logistical hurdles of counting ballots in a state larger than the UK, noting that results may not be final until November 18. The Anchorage Daily News highlights the growth of Peltola’s lead to 5,800 votes and the confirmed victory of gubernatorial candidate Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins. Alaska Public Media notes that Peltola’s lead is more than double the vote total of the duplicate candidate, Dan J. Sullivan, effectively nullifying the legal arguments for vote reallocation, though it acknowledges ongoing criminal investigations.

Why it matters

The outcome determines whether Democrats maintain their 56-seat majority in the Senate or if Republicans retain 55 seats. It also sets a precedent for handling duplicate candidate names and ranked-choice voting in close elections, with potential implications for future federal certification processes.

What to watch

Election officials will conduct ranked-choice tabulation on November 18 to determine the Senate winner if no candidate reaches 50% of first-choice votes. Final certification is scheduled for November 25, pending the resolution of ongoing legal appeals and criminal investigations into the recruitment of the duplicate candidate.