Becerra widens lead to 22 points as PPIC poll shows California voters split on billionaire tax

Key points

• Becerra leads Hilton 60% to 38% among likely voters, a 22-point margin that expands the gap from the 18 points seen in August.
• The PPIC survey, conducted Sept. 4–10, found 93% of Democrats support Becerra and 92% of Republicans back Hilton, with independents favoring Becerra 57% to 38%.
• Hilton leads in the Central Valley (52% to 46%), while Becerra maintains majority support across age, education, gender, and income groups.
• 52% of likely voters support Proposition 40, a one-time 5% billionaire wealth tax, but 51% and 54% respectively support Propositions 41 and 42, which would invalidate such taxes.
• 65% of likely voters say affordability is a very important factor in their vote, amid 71% of adults expecting bad financial times for the state in the next year.

Background

Becerra surged into the lead during the primaries after Democratic front-runner Eric Swalwell dropped out amid allegations. In August, a Berkeley/LA Times poll showed Becerra ahead 55% to 37%, with analysts noting his strong base support despite limited public appearances. Hilton has campaigned on populist economic issues, including abolishing the DMV and capping car fees, while facing legal hurdles in a Democratic-led legislature.

How outlets are covering it

The California Post emphasizes Becerra’s widening lead and characterizes his low-key campaign strategy as a sign of confidence, while noting Hilton’s criticism of the poll as 'misleading.' EdSource focuses on the ballot measures, highlighting the paradox that majorities support both the billionaire tax and the propositions designed to invalidate it, reflecting voter uncertainty or conflicting priorities. Both outlets agree that affordability is a central concern, but the California Post frames it as a factor favoring Becerra’s incumbency, while EdSource notes the opposition from the California Teachers Association and Gov. Gavin Newsom to the wealth tax.

Why it matters

The poll signals a likely Democratic victory in the governor’s race, but the split on the billionaire tax suggests a fragmented electorate that could impact other statewide measures. The outcome of Proposition 40 and its countermeasures will determine whether California imposes a new tax or maintains existing funding structures, with implications for healthcare and education budgets.

What to watch

The campaign will likely intensify in the final weeks before the Nov. 3 election, with Hilton potentially focusing on the Central Valley and affordability issues. Voters will decide on 14 statewide measures, including the billionaire tax and its countermeasures, which could reshape California’s fiscal landscape.