Blakeman’s Late Surge Fails to Close 14-Point Gap in Final Week
Incumbent Governor Kathy Hochul has widened her lead over Republican challenger Bruce Blakeman to 14 points in the final week before Election Day, according to a new Siena poll. While Blakeman campaigns on crime and cost-of-living issues, his favorability remains near neutral, and his association with President Trump is viewed negatively by a majority of voters. Hochul’s favorability has reached a majority for the first time in her tenure, and 68% of voters expect her to win. Blakeman, a 71-year-old Nassau County executive, is considered an underdog but maintains he will win, citing his history of taking political risks.
Key points
- Siena poll shows Hochul leading Blakeman 54-40%, up from 50-41% in September.
- Hochul’s favorability rating reached 51-45%, a majority for the first time in her five-year tenure.
- 68% of voters believe Hochul will win, including 40% of Republicans.
- Blakeman’s favorability is 39-40%, with 48% of voters viewing Trump’s endorsement negatively.
- Blakeman, 71, is seeking to become New York’s first Republican governor in over two decades.
Background
Blakeman, a longtime Nassau County executive, has a history of political risk-taking, including winning a Democratic-drawn legislative seat in 1996 and defeating incumbent Laura Curran in 2021. He previously served as a driver for Nancy Reagan during the 1980 presidential campaign and was appointed to the Port Authority by George Pataki in 2001. His personal life includes a marriage to Judge Segal Magori in 2015 and a nephew killed in the 9/11 attacks. Hochul has faced criticism for antisemitism within the Democratic Party, a point Blakeman has emphasized in his campaign.
How outlets are covering it
The New York Post portrays Blakeman as a resilient, risk-taking underdog with a deep political pedigree, highlighting his early involvement with the Reagan campaign and his father’s legacy. The New York Times focuses on Blakeman’s appeal to voters frustrated with cost and crime, noting his close ties to President Trump and his image as a 'savior' figure. The Siena poll provides a quantitative perspective, showing Hochul’s widening lead and the negative impact of Trump’s endorsement on Blakeman’s campaign. The outlets differ in emphasis: the Post highlights Blakeman’s personal narrative, the Times focuses on voter sentiment, and the poll provides hard data on the race’s trajectory.
Why it matters
The outcome of the New York gubernatorial race will determine the state’s direction on crime, cost-of-living, and Democratic control of statewide offices. Hochul’s re-election would solidify Democratic dominance in New York, while a Blakeman victory would mark a significant shift in the state’s political landscape. The race also reflects broader national trends, including the impact of Trump’s endorsement and voter sentiment on cost and crime.
What to watch
Election Day is November 3, 2026. Blakeman’s campaign will likely focus on closing the gap in upstate and suburban areas, where the race is closer. Hochul’s campaign will emphasize her favorability and the negative perception of Trump’s endorsement. Post-election, the results will determine the balance of power in New York’s government and potentially influence national political dynamics.
- Exclusive | Meet Bruce Blakeman, the NY pol taking on Dem Gov. Hochul New York Post
- Bruce Blakeman Wants to Save New York from ‘Rampant’ Crime. Will it Resonate with Voters? The New York Times
- Siena Poll of Likely New York State Voters Siena Poll
- Marist, Siena polls show Gov. Hochul with double-digit lead over Blakeman ABC7 New York
- How NYC voters could determine outcome of race for governor Gothamist
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