Buttigieg backs Montana independent Bodnar as split vote looms

Key points

• Buttigieg endorsed independent candidate Seth Bodnar, praising his service record and cross-partisan appeal, while notably omitting any mention of Democratic nominee Alani Bankhead.
• Bankhead, an Air Force veteran who won the primary in June, rejected pressure to drop out, alleging party leaders tried to force her withdrawal, a claim the party denies.
• The race features four candidates: Bodnar, Bankhead, Republican Kurt Alme, and Libertarian Kyle Austin, with early voting already underway.
• Alme, a former U.S. Attorney and Harvard graduate, is favored by analysts but has run a quiet campaign, relying on party advantage and a recent rally with President Trump.
• Bodnar’s campaign emphasizes anti-partisan governance and cost-of-living issues, while facing scrutiny over a sealed 2024 Title IX lawsuit settlement involving the University of Montana.

Background

Montana’s Senate seat is open after Republican Sen. Steve Daines retired, having engineered his exit to prevent high-profile Democratic challengers. The state has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 2014. Recent archive coverage notes that Buttigieg’s 2026 midterm tour doubles as a test for his 2028 presidential viability, focusing on cost-of-living and political reform. Additionally, the Montana Democratic Chair resigned in October to endorse Bodnar, citing internal party fractures over Bankhead’s strategy.

How outlets are covering it

ABC News frames Buttigieg’s endorsement as a significant break from party lines, emphasizing the risk of a split vote between Bodnar and Bankhead. Montana Free Press highlights Bodnar’s detailed policy positions, including war powers and healthcare, while noting his broad coalition of endorsements from both parties. NonStop Local Montana fact-checks an attack ad against Bodnar, confirming a 2021 lawsuit was settled in 2024 but noting the details remain sealed and Bodnar was not named as a defendant. News From The States focuses on Alme’s 'homegrown' appeal and quiet campaign, contrasting it with the high-profile activity of his opponents. While ABC and Montana Free Press emphasize the Democratic split, News From The States suggests Alme’s party advantage may outweigh the fractured opposition, as a plurality may suffice for victory.

Why it matters

The outcome in Montana could influence the balance of power in the U.S. Senate, as the state has been a reliable Republican stronghold for over a decade. A split in the non-Republican vote could allow Alme to win with a plurality, potentially shifting the Senate’s composition. Additionally, the race serves as a test for Buttigieg’s 2028 presidential ambitions and the viability of independent candidates in traditionally red states.

What to watch

Vice President JD Vance is scheduled to rally in Montana on October 26, marking the third federal visit in two weeks. Early voting is ongoing, with ballots already in voters' hands ahead of the November 3 election. The race will likely hinge on turnout among independent voters and the extent to which the Democratic vote splits between Bodnar and Bankhead.