California billionaire tax faces stiff opposition as funding gap widens

Key points

• NBC poll: 48% support Prop 40, 38% oppose, 14% undecided; Hispanic voters show 50% support.
• Prop 40 imposes a one-time 5% tax on assets of Californians with net worth over $1.1 billion, retroactive to Jan 1, 2026.
• 90% of revenue would fund healthcare; 10% split between education and food assistance.
• Opponents raised $187 million vs. $32 million for supporters; Brin donated $102 million to anti-tax groups.
• Gov. Newsom opposes Prop 40, advocating a national wealth tax instead; 45% approve his job performance.
• Prop 39 (voter ID) also on ballot: 49% support, 42% oppose; 55% of Hispanic voters support it.

Background

Earlier polls in September 2026 showed Proposition 40 leading at 52% support, but two Brin-funded measures, Prop 41 and Prop 42, could nullify it if they receive more votes. San Francisco Democrats opposed the state tax in favor of a national wealth tax, aligning with Gov. Newsom. Nobel laureates endorsed the tax, while tech leaders like Larry Page and Sergey Brin relocated to avoid it. Hoover Institution research warned the tax could reduce state revenue from $100 billion to $40 billion due to exodus of the wealthy.

How outlets are covering it

NBC News emphasizes the plurality support for Prop 40 and the lack of majority backing, noting voter concern about wealthy residents leaving is low (59% not concerned). CNN highlights the massive financial disparity, with Brin spending $102 million to defeat the tax, framing it as a strategic investment to avoid a $14 billion hit. CNN also notes the potential national implications and the rightward shift of tech leaders. The LA Times focuses on the funding gap ($187 million vs. $32 million) and the division within the Democratic party, with Newsom opposing the measure while the state party supports it. All sources agree on the tight polling and the high stakes for California’s budget and tech industry.

Why it matters

The outcome of Proposition 40 could reshape California’s fiscal landscape and influence wealth tax policies nationwide. A victory for the tax could provide $100 billion for healthcare, offsetting federal cuts, but failure could signal resistance to wealth taxation in other states. The massive spending by tech leaders like Brin underscores the growing influence of megadonors in shaping public policy and the potential for economic disruption if the tax passes.

What to watch

Voters will decide on Proposition 40, 41, and 42 in the November 3 election. If Prop 41 or 42 receives more votes than Prop 40, it could nullify the wealth tax. The gubernatorial race between Xavier Becerra and Steve Hilton will also be closely watched, as both oppose the tax. Future polls may show shifts in support as the election approaches, and the outcome could influence wealth tax initiatives in other states.