California Billionaire Tax Stalls in Polls Despite Heavy Spending and Elite Backing

Key points

• Citizen-POLITICO poll finds 46% support vs. 43% opposition for Prop 40, with no significant movement from a month ago.
• Opponents, including Peter Thiel and Sergey Brin, have spent hundreds of millions to block the tax, outspending supporters by over 5:1.
• 69% of tax experts surveyed oppose the measure, citing concerns over taxpayer mobility and revenue loss, though 60% of tax lawyers support it.
• The tax aims to raise $100 billion to fund healthcare, potentially saving coverage for 3 million Californians threatened by federal cuts.
• Undecided voters lean 69% toward support, and voters under 44 are more likely to back the measure, but overall turnout remains a concern.

Background

Proposition 40 was placed on the ballot by the SEIU-UHW union after collecting 875,000 signatures. Earlier polls in September showed a narrow lead for the measure, but concerns arose over potential countermeasures, including Proposition 42, which would ban future wealth taxes. A recent SEIU probe into union leadership controversies also cast a shadow on the campaign's internal dynamics.

How outlets are covering it

Proponents, including Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Ro Khanna, argue the tax is essential to counter federal healthcare cuts and ensure billionaires pay their fair share. They emphasize that 58% of voters support the principle of taxing the ultra-wealthy. Opponents, backed by billionaires like Elon Musk and Sergey Brin, warn the tax could be expanded to non-billionaires and trigger a mass exodus of wealthy residents, reducing state revenue. Tax experts are divided, with economists and accountants largely opposing the measure due to administrative and economic concerns, while tax lawyers are more supportive. Pollsters note that while anti-billionaire sentiment is strong, it has not translated into decisive voting support, and the opposition's heavy spending has monopolized airwaves, though 45% of voters say ads have not swayed them.

Why it matters

The outcome of Proposition 40 will determine whether California becomes the first state to implement a wealth tax, potentially setting a national precedent. It also tests the Democratic Party's stance on wealth inequality and healthcare funding, with Governor Gavin Newsom opposing the state measure in favor of a national tax. The result could influence future federal tax policy and the balance of power between labor unions and corporate interests.

What to watch

Voting for Proposition 40 will take place on November 3, 2026. Campaigns are intensifying efforts to mobilize voters, with proponents focusing on the healthcare benefits and opponents warning of economic consequences. The final outcome will depend on turnout among undecided voters and younger demographics, who lean toward support but have historically lower participation rates.