Collins Edges Ahead of Jackson in Maine Senate Race, But Undecided Voters Keep It Close

Key points

• The New York Times and Siena College poll, conducted Sept. 15-22, shows Collins at 49% and Jackson at 46% among likely voters.
• The margin of error is approximately 5 points, and 5% of the 619 respondents remained undecided.
• This is the first poll to show Collins ahead since Democrat Graham Platner dropped out in July; Jackson had previously led by 3-4 points.
• Jackson leads among women (9 points), voters aged 30-44 (18 points), and Hispanic voters (34 points), while Collins leads among men, older voters, and white/Black respondents.
• The poll was completed before a ProPublica report raised pay-to-play allegations regarding Collins and former Navatek CEO Martin Kao.

Background

Maine’s Senate race has been a focal point for Democrats seeking to retake the U.S. Senate, where Republicans hold a 53-45 majority. Collins, a moderate and the only Republican senator running for reelection in a Democratic-led state, has faced intense advertising and debate pressure. Jackson, a former Maine Senate President, replaced Platner after the latter’s withdrawal amid sexual assault claims. Recent campaigns have focused on issues, personal conduct, and labor mobilization, with both parties spending tens of millions on ads.

How outlets are covering it

The Portland Press Herald and The Center Square both highlight Collins’ narrow lead but emphasize the race’s volatility due to undecided voters. The Center Square notes the poll’s timing relative to new pay-to-play allegations, which Collins dismissed as a 'political hit job.' Siena’s data shows significant demographic splits, with Jackson leading among younger and Hispanic voters, while Collins leads among older and white voters. All sources agree the race is a toss-up, with Cook Political Report and Inside Elections rating it as such.

Why it matters

Maine’s Senate race is pivotal for Democrats’ efforts to flip the U.S. Senate. A Collins win would maintain Republican control, while a Jackson victory could shift the balance of power. The close polling and high undecided rate suggest the outcome remains uncertain, with potential implications for national legislative priorities and party control.

What to watch

Campaigns will likely intensify advertising and outreach to undecided voters in the final month before the Nov. 3 election. Responses to the pay-to-play allegations may influence voter perceptions. Additional polls and debates will provide further insights into voter sentiment.