Colorado’s 4th District race defies expectations as Laubacher holds narrow lead over Boebert

Key points

• Laubacher leads Boebert by less than 1 percentage point, with 48.7% to 48.0% of the vote counted.
• The 4th District was previously rated as a 'solid Republican' seat, making Laubacher’s lead unexpected.
• Boebert leads in rural counties like Weld, while Laubacher carries urban areas like Douglas and Arapahoe.
• The race is one of three undecided congressional contests in Colorado, alongside the 3rd and 5th Districts.
• Several statewide ballot measures, including those on transgender sports and income tax, are also awaiting final results.

Background

In the 2024 presidential election, the 4th District was heavily Republican, with Boebert winning by a wide margin. The district covers the Eastern Plains and parts of metro Denver, including Douglas County. Historically, the district has been one of the most Republican-leaning in Colorado, with the last Democrat elected to the seat in 2008. The current race is part of a broader national trend where Democrats have gained ground in midterms, but the 4th District’s outcome remains uncertain due to the close margin and outstanding ballots.

How outlets are covering it

The Colorado Sun and The Denver Post report that the race is too close to call, with Laubacher holding a narrow lead. NBC News provides a detailed county-by-county breakdown, showing that Boebert leads in rural areas while Laubacher carries urban counties. CBS News highlights the unexpected nature of the race, noting that political analysts had rated the district as 'likely R' before the election. Kyle Saunders, a Colorado State University political science professor, attributes the competitive result to an energized Democratic electorate and lower Republican turnout, as well as Boebert’s recent friction with President Trump. Boebert, in turn, has urged supporters not to give up, stating that she is 'winning all but three counties' and that more ballots need to be counted. Laubacher, meanwhile, has expressed pride in her campaign’s ability to connect with voters who previously supported Republicans or had become disengaged from politics.

Why it matters

The outcome of the 4th District race could have significant implications for Colorado’s congressional delegation and the state’s political balance. If Laubacher wins, it would mark a historic shift in a district that has been reliably Republican for decades. The race also reflects broader trends in the 2026 midterms, where Democrats have gained ground in several states, but the 4th District’s result remains uncertain due to the close margin and outstanding ballots. The outcome could also influence the state’s approach to key issues, including those addressed by the ballot measures, such as transgender sports and income tax.

What to watch

The race will likely remain undecided for several days as mail-in ballots are processed. The Colorado Secretary of State’s office will continue to release results, and the Associated Press will call the race when enough votes are counted to show a definitive winner. If the race remains close, it could lead to a recount or legal challenges. The outcome of the 4th District race will also have implications for the state’s congressional delegation and the balance of power in the U.S. House of Representatives.