Colorado’s 4th District race remains too close to call as Laubacher holds narrow lead over Boebert

Key points

• Laubacher leads Boebert by roughly 1.5 percentage points, with approximately 92.8% of expected votes counted.
• Boebert would need to win 52.8% of the remaining vote to overtake Laubacher, according to NBC News data.
• The district has shifted 19.41 points toward Democrats compared to the 2024 presidential election.
• Laubacher raised $13.7 million versus Boebert’s $1.2 million, according to earlier reporting.
• Boebert acknowledged the uncertainty but urged supporters to wait for the final count, noting she is winning all but three counties.

Background

Colorado’s 4th Congressional District was drawn in 2021 as a heavily Republican seat, with an average 25-point advantage for Republicans. The district covers the Eastern Plains and parts of the Front Range, including Douglas, Adams, Arapahoe, Larimer, and Weld counties. Boebert moved to this district in 2022 after winning a close reelection in the 3rd District by only 546 votes. Her tenure has been marked by shifts in legislative strategy, including embracing earmarks and working across the aisle, as well as public friction with President Trump, who previously suggested a primary challenger. Laubacher, a retired Navy rear admiral and former registered Republican, positioned herself as a moderate candidate focused on rural representation and opposing recent Republican legislation.

How outlets are covering it

CBS News and Colorado Public Radio emphasize the unexpected competitiveness of the race, highlighting Laubacher’s ability to connect with disengaged voters and Republicans who had not previously voted for Democrats. Colorado Public Radio notes that Laubacher’s military background and moderate stance align with successful Democratic candidates in similar districts. NBC News provides detailed county-by-county data, showing Boebert’s strong performance in rural areas like Baca and Bent counties, while Laubacher leads in more populated areas like Arapahoe. USA Today focuses on the tight margin, noting that 99% of votes are counted with Laubacher at 49.2% and Boebert at 47.7%. Kyle Saunders, a political science professor, attributes the result to a combination of Boebert’s association with Trump, an energized Democratic electorate, and lower Republican turnout. Boebert’s campaign emphasizes the remaining mail ballots, while Laubacher’s campaign highlights its fundraising advantage and voter outreach efforts.

Why it matters

The outcome of Colorado’s 4th District race could signal a broader shift in Republican-held districts during the 2026 midterms. If Laubacher wins, it would mark the first Democratic victory in the district since 2008 and reflect a significant Democratic surge in a traditionally red area. The race also highlights the impact of national political trends, including economic concerns and anti-incumbency sentiment, on local elections. Boebert’s potential loss would underscore the challenges facing Republican incumbents who have faced friction with the party leadership, while Laubacher’s success would demonstrate the effectiveness of moderate Democratic candidates in competitive districts.

What to watch

The final outcome depends on the counting of remaining mail ballots, particularly in rural counties where Boebert holds strong support. Analysts predict Boebert will narrow the gap but may ultimately fall short. The race could take days to resolve, with potential legal challenges if the margin is extremely close. The result will also influence the broader House majority calculation, as Democrats aim to win control of the chamber in the 2026 midterms.