Conflicting Polls Show Hochul Leading Blakeman by 9 to 19 Points in New York

Key points

• Siena College’s poll, conducted Sept. 11-17, shows Hochul at 50% and Blakeman at 41%, a 9-point gap that narrows from August’s 10-point lead.
• Quinnipiac University’s poll, conducted Sept. 17-20, shows Hochul at 58% and Blakeman at 39%, a 19-point gap.
• Siena notes 66% of voters believe Hochul will win, including 37% of Republicans, despite her sub-50% support.
• Quinnipiac finds cost of living and economy are top issues, with Hochul leading 66-30% among cost-of-living voters.
• Trump’s endorsement of Blakeman is viewed negatively by 51% of voters, while Mamdani’s endorsement of Hochul is seen positively by 50%.

Background

Hochul, who became governor in 2021 after Andrew Cuomo’s resignation, is seeking a second full term. Her 2022 victory over Lee Zeldin was by 6 points, despite leading by 17 points in late October polls. The current race is marked by high partisan loyalty: Blakeman leads Republicans 88-8%, while Hochul leads Democrats 81-11% (Siena) or 89-6% (Quinnipiac).

How outlets are covering it

Fox News emphasizes the narrowing gap and Blakeman’s momentum, citing Siena’s 9-point lead. Quinnipiac highlights Hochul’s commanding 19-point lead, attributing it to higher NYC turnout assumptions and fewer undecided voters. Politico notes the methodological divergence, with Quinnipiac’s sample including 38% NYC voters versus Siena’s 30%, and 3% undecided versus 9% in Siena. Republicans argue both polls overstate Hochul’s advantage, citing visible campaign signs. Democrats counter that Blakeman is a 'Trump puppet' threatening healthcare and rights.

Why it matters

The wide discrepancy between polls raises questions about the race’s true trajectory with six weeks left. If Quinnipiac’s 19-point lead holds, Hochul faces minimal threat; if Siena’s 9-point lead is accurate, the race remains competitive, especially in upstate and suburban areas. Voter confidence in election integrity is low, with only 32% 'very likely' to believe results will be accurately counted.

What to watch

Campaigns will likely intensify focus on cost of living and energy policy. Hochul’s data center moratorium and energy rebate program are central to her platform. Blakeman will emphasize tax cuts and healthcare costs. Final polls in October may resolve the discrepancy, but current data suggests Hochul is favored, though not by a landslide in all models.