Economic Anxiety and Deportation Fears Drive Latino Voters Away from Trump in Texas and Florida

Key points

• An NBC News/Telemundo poll released in late September found that only 27% of registered Latino voters approve of Trump’s performance.
• Over 60% of Latino voters now view the Republican Party negatively, the highest share since the summer of 2016.
• In Texas, local business owners like Arturo Flores in San Antonio report declining sales, citing economic hardship as a primary reason for their political shift.
• In Florida, Rep. María Elvira Salazar, a Trump-endorsed Republican, publicly criticized the administration’s mass-deportation campaign, warning that the Latino coalition feels betrayed.
• The Democratic Party’s image among Latino voters has also deteriorated, with negative views rising from 14% in 2016 to 42% in late September 2026, though this decline occurred mostly before the current midterm cycle.

Background

This shift follows a historic 2024 election where Latino voters moved toward the Republican Party. Recent months have seen intense competition in six key Texas House districts, with some races flipping from 'lean Republican' to 'tossup' due to demographic changes and falling approval ratings. Additionally, a software glitch at the Texas Department of Public Safety in September 2026 delayed 178,000 voter registrations, complicating the political landscape ahead of the November elections.

How outlets are covering it

NBC News and The New York Times emphasize the statistical decline in support, highlighting the 'buyer's remorse' among Latino voters driven by economic anxiety and immigration enforcement. Mother Jones focuses on the tangible impact of ICE operations in Florida, noting that while some Republicans like Salazar are distancing themselves from Trump’s policies, other local officials continue to cooperate with deportation efforts. All sources agree that the 2024 gains for the GOP are at risk, but they differ on the primary driver: NBC and NYT cite broad economic dissatisfaction and party image, while Mother Jones highlights the specific trauma of mass deportations and the internal GOP conflict over immigration tactics.

Why it matters

The withdrawal of Latino voters from the Republican Party could determine control of the U.S. House and Senate in the 2026 midterms. With Texas and Florida being critical battleground states, the erosion of this coalition threatens the GOP’s narrow majority and signals a potential long-term realignment in American politics. The simultaneous decline in Democratic favorability among these voters suggests a complex political landscape where neither party currently holds a strong advantage with this key demographic.

What to watch

Pollsters and political analysts will closely monitor voter registration and turnout in majority-Hispanic districts in Texas and Florida in the coming weeks. The outcome of the six competitive Texas House races will serve as a bellwether for the national midterm results. Additionally, the Democratic Governors Association is expected to expand its focus to Texas, leveraging the momentum from the shifting Latino vote to challenge incumbent Republicans like Gov. Greg Abbott.