Historic Disapproval on Inflation Threatens GOP Midterm Hold

Key points

• AP-NORC polling shows 82% of Americans disapprove of Trump's handling of inflation, a historic low that exceeds disapproval for the Iraq War and Watergate.
• Trump's overall approval rating averages 37% across major polls, with 61% disapproval, marking the lowest levels of his second term.
• 65% of Americans blame Trump's policies for rising costs, a higher figure than the 44% who blamed Biden for inflation before the 2022 midterms.
• Decision Desk HQ forecasts Democrats will win 51 Senate seats and 234 House seats, but analysts note Republican voters are increasingly hard to reach in polls.
• Trump is campaigning heavily in red states like Texas and Oklahoma to boost turnout, despite the national economic discontent.

Background

Since September 2026, polling has consistently shown a sharp decline in Trump's approval, driven by economic strain and the ongoing war in Iran. Earlier reports indicated that voters were viewing congressional races as a rejection of the president rather than a choice between parties. The current data confirms this trend, with economic dissatisfaction now surpassing other major political liabilities in historical comparisons.

How outlets are covering it

USA TODAY emphasizes the structural risk to the GOP, noting that while Democrats have a high-propensity voting coalition, Republicans face a 'no floor' scenario due to potential low turnout. CNN highlights the unprecedented nature of the inflation disapproval, comparing it to historical crises like the Iran hostage crisis and Watergate, noting that even 70% agreement on political issues is rare. AP-NORC provides the raw data, showing that 69% of the public feels Trump's handling of the cost of living is worse than expected, including 52% of Republicans. While USA TODAY and CNN focus on the magnitude of the deficit, AP-NORC notes that 67% of Republicans still believe high prices are due to factors beyond the president's control, suggesting a potential gap between public sentiment and party base loyalty.

Why it matters

The midterms are critical for determining whether the GOP can maintain its narrow congressional majorities. With the economy being the top voter concern, historic disapproval ratings could lead to a significant shift in power, potentially resulting in a Democratic takeover of both chambers of Congress, similar to the 2006 elections under George W. Bush.

What to watch

The focus will shift to voter turnout in the coming weeks. Trump is prioritizing rallies in red states to mobilize the base, while Democrats aim to leverage their high-propensity coalition. The outcome will depend on whether the difficulty in polling Republican voters translates to actual turnout or if the economic dissatisfaction drives a broader wave of Democratic support.