Hochul Holds Double-Digit Lead as Blakeman’s Trump Ties Backfire in Final Push
With Election Day approaching, incumbent Governor Kathy Hochul maintains a significant lead over Republican challenger Bruce Blakeman. Recent polls show Hochul ahead by 11 to 14 points among likely voters. While Blakeman campaigns on crime and cost-of-living issues, his close ties to President Trump are viewed negatively by a majority of voters. Hochul’s favorability has reached a majority for the first time in her tenure, and prediction markets heavily favor her re-election.
Key points
- Marist Poll shows Hochul leading Blakeman 53% to 42% among likely voters, with a 14-point lead among all registered voters.
- Siena University poll shows Hochul leading 54% to 40%, widening her lead from 11 points in September to 14 points in October.
- 48% of likely voters view President Trump’s endorsement of Blakeman as a negative, while only 28% see it as a positive.
- Hochul’s favorability rating has reached a majority for the first time in her five-year tenure, according to Siena.
- Prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket give Hochul 94% and 96% odds of winning, respectively.
Background
Blakeman has been courting disaffected Democratic voters in areas like the Bronx, citing frustration with rising costs and crime. His campaign contrasts his record as Nassau County executive with Hochul’s policies, promising tax cuts and lower utility bills. This strategy follows a broader trend of some Democratic voters defecting to Republicans due to economic concerns and perceived ideological drift within the Democratic Party.
How outlets are covering it
The New York Times highlights Blakeman’s grassroots appeal, noting his interactions with voters in the Bronx and his positioning as a savior for a gritty, exasperated New York. However, Marist and Siena polls indicate that this appeal is not translating into a competitive race, with Hochul holding a consistent double-digit lead. WRGB reports that Blakeman frames the election as a 'tipping point' for jobs and prosperity, while Hochul criticizes his reliance on Trump. The Bergen Record notes that while Blakeman claims the race is close, multiple polls and prediction markets show Hochul as the overwhelming favorite. The discrepancy between Blakeman’s campaign messaging and polling data suggests a gap between his perceived support and actual voter intent.
Why it matters
The outcome of the New York governor race will signal the strength of the Democratic Party in a key state during the 2026 midterms. Hochul’s re-election would solidify Democratic control in New York, while a Blakeman victory would represent a significant shift in a traditionally Democratic state. The race also reflects broader national trends, with many voters viewing their congressional ballot as a referendum on President Trump’s performance.
What to watch
Election Day is on November 3, 2026. Both candidates are holding final rallies in upstate New York, with Hochul in Albany and Blakeman in Elmira. Early voting numbers are up 100% compared to four years ago, according to Hochul. The final results will determine whether Hochul secures a second term or if Blakeman can overcome the polling deficit and negative perception of his Trump ties.
- ‘Bruce Is Bruce’: The Republican Selling Himself as New York’s Savior The New York Times
- How NYC voters could determine outcome of race for governor Gothamist
- The Midterm Elections in New York, October 2026 Marist University
- Hochul rallies Albany Democrats in final push as polls show double-digit lead WRGB
- Who’s winning Hochul vs. Blakeman? What new polls, odds reveal Bergen Record
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