Hochul Widens Lead to 14 Points as Favorability Hits Majority for First Time
A new Siena poll shows Gov. Kathy Hochul widening her lead over Republican challenger Bruce Blakeman to 14 points, with her favorability rating reaching a majority for the first time. Democrats also hold double-digit leads in other statewide races and the generic congressional ballot.
Key points
- Hochul leads Blakeman 54-40%, up from 50-41% in September.
- Hochul’s favorability reached 51%, a first in her five years as governor.
- 68% of voters expect Hochul to win, including 40% of Republicans.
- Democrats lead the generic congressional ballot 54-39%.
- Attorney General Letitia James and Comptroller Tom DiNapoli hold double-digit leads.
Background
In September 2026, conflicting polls showed Hochul leading Blakeman by 9 to 19 points. The Siena poll from that month showed a 9-point margin, while Quinnipiac reported a 19-point lead. This October poll narrows the gap to 14 points, consistent with the Quinnipiac margin but wider than the September Siena result.
How outlets are covering it
Siena pollster Steven Greenberg emphasizes Hochul’s growing lead and the lack of Republican confidence, noting that 40% of Republicans expect Hochul to win. amNewYork highlights the shift among independents, where Hochul now leads 51-40%, contrasting with a Quinnipiac poll showing Blakeman ahead 51-44% among independents. Newsday focuses on regional shifts, noting Hochul’s lead in upstate narrowed from 3 points behind to 1 point ahead, while her NYC lead widened to 44 points. The Wellsville Sun op-ed, a Republican-leaning outlet, argues for Blakeman based on affordability and public safety, but does not provide polling data.
Why it matters
The poll indicates Hochul is likely to retain her office, with a majority of voters expecting her victory. The Democratic advantage in the generic congressional ballot suggests a potential shift in the state’s congressional delegation. The results also reflect broader national trends of Democratic strength in midterms, as seen in September polls from Marquette and the New York Times/Siena.
What to watch
With one week until Election Day, Blakeman’s campaign faces a significant challenge in closing the 14-point gap. Hochul’s campaign is focusing on Blakeman’s ties to President Trump, who remains unpopular with New York voters. The final week may see shifts in undecided voters, but the poll suggests limited room for Blakeman to close the gap.
- Siena Poll of Likely New York State Voters Siena Poll
- New Siena poll: Hochul leads Blakeman by 14 points as Mamdani’s NYC popularity grows amNewYork
- Kathy Hochul leads Bruce Blakeman in New York governor race Newsday
- Marist, Siena polls show Gov. Hochul with double-digit lead over Blakeman ABC7 New York
- OP-ED: Your Vote Will Make a Difference the wellsville sun
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