Latino voters swing back to Democrats in 2026 midterms as Trump approval plummets
Latino voters are shifting sharply toward Democrats ahead of the 2026 midterms, with a 24-point margin favoring Democratic control of Congress. This reversal is driven by economic dissatisfaction and backlash against immigration enforcement, though the group remains divided by gender and generation.
Key points
- The NBC News/Telemundo poll finds Latino registered voters prefer Democratic control of Congress by 59% to 35%, a 24-point margin that is double the 12-point Democratic lead seen at this stage in 2024.
- A CBS News/YouGov poll confirms this trend, showing Hispanic likely voters favoring Democratic House candidates 60% to 39%.
- Only 27% of Latino voters approve of President Trump’s overall job performance, with just 20% approving of his handling of the cost of living.
- Latino men show significant political whiplash; while they supported Trump by 10 points in 2024, they now prefer Democratic congressional control by 53% to 39%.
- Economic anxiety remains high, with nearly two-thirds of Latino voters saying their income is falling behind the cost of living, and 78% disapproving of Trump’s economic management.
- Immigration enforcement has sparked backlash, with 67% saying Trump’s actions have gone too far and 31% reporting they or a close associate now carries ID due to ICE concerns.
Background
This shift follows a period where Latino voters were a key factor in Trump’s 2024 victory, with exit polls showing he won 46% of the Latino vote. Recent polls, including a September 2026 Hart Research/TelevisaUnivision survey, already indicated a leftward tilt in competitive House districts. The current data suggests a broader national reversal, though Democrats have not fully recovered their historical dominance with this demographic.
How outlets are covering it
NBC News and CNN emphasize the sharp reversal in party preference and the specific impact of economic and immigration policies on Latino voters. Axios highlights the strategic implications for Republicans, noting that GOP redistricting efforts in Texas and Florida were based on the assumption that 2024 Latino gains would endure. All sources agree on the magnitude of the shift but differ in emphasis: CNN focuses on the decline in Trump’s approval ratings, while Axios notes that Democrats’ net favorability has actually fallen slightly, even as the GOP’s has dropped by 18 points.
Why it matters
The Latino electorate, comprising roughly 36 million voters, is pivotal for the 2026 midterms. A sustained shift toward Democrats could alter the balance of power in Congress and complicate Republican strategies in key swing states like Arizona, California, Florida, and Texas. The data also suggests that economic and immigration concerns are more influential than party loyalty for this demographic.
What to watch
Pollsters will monitor whether these preferences translate into voter turnout, as some Latino voters are considering abstaining due to fear of immigration enforcement. Campaigns will likely intensify efforts in competitive districts, focusing on economic relief and immigration policy to address the concerns driving this demographic shift.
- Poll: The Latino vote isn’t a monolith. Here’s how it breaks down by gender, generation and more. NBC News
- Latino men swung hard to Trump in 2024. Now they're swinging back Axios
- Poll: Latino voters swing away from Trump and Republicans NBC News
- Latino voters, souring on Trump, swing toward Democrats, new poll finds CNN
- Trump’s 2024 support from Hispanic voters dips in new poll The Hill
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