Maine CD2 race heads to ranked-choice tabulation after Dunlap concedes to LePage

Key points

• Paul LePage received 170,263 votes (49.9%) and Matt Dunlap received 164,845 votes (48.3%) according to state totals.
• The Secretary of State’s Office determined that no candidate achieved a majority, triggering ranked-choice tabulation.
• Matt Dunlap conceded the race on November 4, stating his campaign does not believe ranked-choice voting will change the outcome.
• Paul LePage declared victory on November 3, citing a lead of over 4,400 votes based on early estimates.
• Ranked-choice tabulation begins on November 10 at 10 a.m. in Augusta and will be livestreamed.

Background

This contest is part of a broader 2026 midterm trend where Democrats gained ground in Maine, including the U.S. Senate race where Troy Jackson defeated Susan Collins. Maine’s use of ranked-choice voting often delays results in close races, as seen in the concurrent Alaska Senate race.

How outlets are covering it

WABI reported that LePage’s campaign emphasized a large vote margin and declared victory before the official tabulation, while Dunlap’s team expressed disappointment but conceded, noting they did not expect the ranked-choice process to alter the result. NBC News provided live data showing LePage leading with 50.0% of counted votes, noting that Dunlap would need to win 55.7% of remaining votes to overtake him. Both sources agree that the race is effectively decided in LePage’s favor, but WABI highlighted the legal trigger for tabulation due to blank votes and write-ins, whereas NBC focused on the statistical lead and vote shift toward Democrats compared to 2024.

Why it matters

The outcome determines the composition of the U.S. House of Representatives, where Democrats have gained a majority in the 2026 midterms. Maine’s 2nd District is a key battleground, and the use of ranked-choice voting highlights the state’s unique electoral mechanics in close contests.

What to watch

The ranked-choice tabulation process will begin on November 10 at the Maine Department of Public Safety Headquarters in Augusta. The process will be open to the public and livestreamed on the Secretary of State’s YouTube channel. Final certification of the results will follow the completion of this tabulation.