Nevada GOP leverages Newsom’s 2028 bid to attack Ford in tight gubernatorial race

Key points

• Lombardo blames Newsom’s California energy policies for Nevada’s high gas prices, which cost nearly $5 per gallon.
• The Better Nevada PAC launched an ad campaign linking Ford to Newsom, noting Newsom’s favorability is 20 points underwater in Nevada.
• Newsom visited Las Vegas in July to endorse Ford, a move Republicans view as a liability for the Democratic candidate.
• Ford counters that gas prices rose due to a war in February, not California regulations, and notes Newsom leads the 2028 Democratic primary in Nevada by 2-to-1.
• Nevada is crucial for Newsom’s 2028 bid, as it is the second state on the Democratic primary calendar.

Background

Nevada has historically been a battleground state with a significant population of California expats. Previous cycles saw Republicans blaming California for high costs and progressive policies. Newsom’s 2028 bid faces a challenging primary calendar, including Nevada, where he must overcome local skepticism of his energy and regulatory record. The current race follows a 2022 victory by Lombardo over Democrat Steve Sisolak, who was also criticized for aligning with Newsom.

How outlets are covering it

Politico emphasizes the strategic use of Newsom as a 'boogeyman' to deflect blame from President Trump’s economic policies. The Las Vegas Review-Journal frames the issue as Newsom injecting himself into local politics, potentially complicating Ford’s campaign. Nevada Globe focuses on the polling data, noting Lombardo’s lead has widened significantly, with models showing a 12-point jump in his win probability. While Politico highlights the 2028 implications, Nevada Globe stresses the immediate electoral advantage for Lombardo, suggesting the Newsom connection is a key factor in his momentum.

Why it matters

The outcome of the Nevada governor’s race serves as a critical test for Newsom’s 2028 presidential viability. If Newsom’s endorsement hurts Ford, it signals that his California-centric policies may alienate swing voters in other early-voting states. Conversely, Lombardo’s success in blaming external factors for economic pain could set a precedent for how Republicans handle economic discontent in future cycles, potentially insulating them from direct blame for national policies.

What to watch

The Nevada governor’s race will conclude in November 2026, with results providing early indicators of Newsom’s appeal in the 2028 Democratic primary. If Lombardo wins decisively, it may suggest that Newsom’s brand is a liability in key early states. Conversely, if Ford performs well despite the attacks, it could indicate that Newsom’s national profile remains an asset. The race will also influence how Republicans frame economic issues in the 2028 general election, potentially continuing the strategy of blaming external factors for domestic economic challenges.