New Hampshire Midterms: Sununu vs. Pappas and State House Control

Key points

• U.S. Senate: Democrat Chris Pappas faces Republican John Sununu for the seat vacated by retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen; Sununu previously lost to Shaheen in 2008.
• Governor: Incumbent Republican Kelly Ayotte seeks re-election against Democrat Cinde Warmington, with Libertarian Stephen Villee also on the ballot.
• State House: Control of the chamber is at stake, with Republicans holding a 211-170 majority; Majority Leader Jason Osborne is the leading candidate for speaker if Republicans retain control.
• Ballot Measure: Voters are deciding on a question to cap property tax growth for local school districts, requiring a 60% majority to pass in each town.
• Down-Ballot Races: Democrats aim to flip several state Senate seats, including District 11 and District 18, while Republicans rely on gerrymandered districts to maintain their advantage.

Background

New Hampshire is one of 24 states electing both a governor and a senator in 2026. The state is unique in having clear frontrunners from different parties in the top two races, which complicates modeling for down-ballot outcomes. Recent developments include a Supreme Court ruling allowing New Hampshire to ban student IDs as backup voter identification, a move supported by the Republican National Committee but challenged by voting rights groups. Additionally, Democratic candidate Gavin Newsom visited the state in October to support local candidates, though his support has declined among local party leaders.

How outlets are covering it

WMUR highlights the broad scope of the election, including weather conditions and polling location details, while emphasizing the key races for governor, Senate, and House. NHPR focuses on the significance of down-ballot races, noting that control of the state legislature will impact daily life issues like taxes and education. NHPR also points out the difficulty in predicting outcomes due to ticket splitting and the unique partisan split in the top races. NBC News and The New York Times provide live results tracking, emphasizing the competitive nature of the Senate race and the potential for Democrats to flip seats in the state legislature. All sources agree on the key matchups but differ in emphasis, with NHPR focusing on local impacts and national outlets highlighting the broader political implications.

Why it matters

The outcome of these races will determine the balance of power in both chambers of Congress and the state legislature, impacting policies on taxes, education, and other local issues. The unique partisan split in the top two races adds complexity to predictions and highlights the importance of down-ballot races in shaping the political landscape. Additionally, the ballot measure on property tax caps could have significant implications for local school funding and voter priorities.

What to watch

As polls close, results will be tracked to determine the winners in the U.S. Senate, gubernatorial, and state legislative races. The outcome of the ballot measure on property tax caps will also be closely monitored, as it could impact local school funding. Further analysis will focus on the impact of national political sentiment on local outcomes and the potential for Democrats to flip seats in the state legislature.