Paxton admits DC control over Texas Senate campaign as poll numbers lag

Key points

• Paxton stated at a September 24 fundraiser in Washington that he does not control his campaign message or strategy, claiming it is 'all coming from D.C.'
• The audio was obtained by POLITICO from a non-supporter attendee and verified by another; Paxton’s spokesperson called the clip 'manipulated nonsense.'
• Paxton told donors that poll numbers dropped following the recent Republican National Convention in Dallas, stating 'everybody's numbers are down.'
• President Trump deflected questions about the audio, claiming he had not heard the comments and praising the convention’s viewership.
• Vice President JD Vance dismissed the remarks, stating he is not concerned about off-the-record comments and pledged to help Paxton.
• Recent polls show Paxton trailing Talarico, though an internal poll cited by Paxton’s team shows a three-point lead.

Background

This race has been defined by a bruising primary between Paxton and incumbent John Cornyn, which ended with Trump’s 11th-hour endorsement of Paxton. The 2026 cycle is marked by record spending, with total costs projected to reach $440 million. Despite Republican-aligned super PACs outspending Democratic groups by more than 5-to-1, Talarico maintains a slight polling lead. The campaign has also been influenced by Trump’s public taunts regarding Paxton’s appearance, which have sparked debate over whether the strategy is helping or hindering the candidate. Additionally, Paxton’s estranged wife, Angela Paxton, recently released an ad supporting the GOP ticket without mentioning her husband, reflecting the personal and political complexities surrounding the candidate.

How outlets are covering it

POLITICO emphasizes the structural disconnect between Paxton and his campaign, highlighting his admission that Washington is controlling the message. This perspective frames the candidate as a passive figure in a high-stakes race. In contrast, CBS News focuses on the political fallout, detailing how Trump and Vance deflected the audio leak to protect the party’s image. CBS also highlights the polling data and the skepticism from Cornyn, who questioned the efficacy of the current strategy. While POLITICO presents the audio as a candid admission of lack of control, CBS frames it as a controversy that the party is attempting to downplay. Both outlets agree that the race is competitive and that Paxton’s standing is uncertain, but they differ in their interpretation of the audio’s significance: one as a strategic failure, the other as a manageable gaffe.

Why it matters

The Texas Senate seat is a critical battleground for the 2026 midterms, as it could determine the balance of power in the U.S. Senate. Paxton’s admission of losing control over his campaign suggests a potential misalignment between the candidate and the national party strategy, which could impact voter perception. The race’s high cost and tight polling indicate that the outcome is not guaranteed, despite Texas’s historical Republican dominance. If Paxton loses, it would mark the first statewide Democratic victory in Texas since 1994, signaling a significant shift in the state’s political landscape and potentially affecting other Republican-held seats in the South.

What to watch

President Trump is scheduled to make a campaign stop in Denton, Texas, on Thursday, although it is unclear if Paxton will attend. The region faces potential flooding, which may impact the event. As the election approaches, both campaigns are expected to intensify their advertising efforts, with Paxton’s recent $20 million ad blitz likely to be followed by further spending. Polling data will be closely watched to determine if the D.C.-driven strategy is effective or if local messaging needs to be adjusted. The outcome of the race will likely hinge on voter turnout and the ability of each candidate to connect with Texas voters in a hostile political environment.