Paxton and Talarico Close Texas Senate Campaigns on Home Turf Amidst Record Spending and Tight Polls

Key points

• Paxton’s final rally in Allen, Texas, focused on mobilizing over 1 million unvoted Republicans, as he faces a tight race and a potential end to Texas’s 32-year statewide Republican streak.
• Talarico’s Austin rally drew approximately 1,800 supporters, with the candidate emphasizing economic inequality and criticizing the over $200 million spent by Elon Musk to support Paxton.
• The race is described as the most expensive U.S. Senate contest in history, with Talarico raising $134 million total compared to Paxton’s $18 million, though Republicans hold a spending advantage.
• Paxton’s campaign faced logistical issues, including canceled rallies in El Paso and Fort Worth, while Talarico’s strategy relies on winning over moderate Republicans and securing strong margins in suburban counties.
• Early voting data shows nearly equal participation from Democratic and Republican primary voters, a trend that has concerned GOP operatives who typically rely on a larger early-vote bank.

Background

The 2026 Texas Senate race has been marked by intense competition and high spending. In late October, President Donald Trump campaigned for Paxton in Lubbock, while Talarico addressed a large crowd in the same city. Paxton’s campaign faced scrutiny over canceled events, including a planned finale at the Alamo, and logistical challenges in rural areas. Talarico’s campaign raised a record $64 million in the third quarter, totaling $134 million, while Paxton raised $18 million, though Musk’s spending provided a significant financial boost to the Republican side.

How outlets are covering it

The Texas Tribune highlights the contrasting tones of the final rallies, with Paxton emphasizing existential stakes for Texas and Talarico framing the race as a David-versus-Goliath battle against corporate influence. NBC News provides live results tracking, noting the tight race and the potential for a Democratic statewide victory in Texas for the first time since 1994. The Tribune also notes the anxiety among Democratic supporters, who are 'cautiously optimistic,' while Paxton’s supporters express confidence in a landslide victory despite polling gaps.

Why it matters

The outcome of this race could determine control of the U.S. Senate and mark a significant shift in Texas politics, potentially ending a 32-year Republican streak in statewide races. The race also reflects broader national trends in midterm elections, with high spending and intense competition over key issues like economic affordability and cultural values.

What to watch

Polls close at 8:00 PM ET, with results expected to be tight. The race will hinge on turnout among unvoted Republicans and the ability of Talarico to persuade moderate voters. Final results will determine the balance of power in the U.S. Senate and the political landscape in Texas.