Polls Show South Carolina Senate Race Toss-Up as Trump Intensifies Support for Graham

Key points

• A New York Times/Siena poll shows Graham and Andrews tied at 48%, while an ECU poll gives Graham a narrow 51% to 47% lead among likely voters.
• Andrews is campaigning as a centrist, distancing herself from national Democratic leaders and criticizing the party on border and Medicare issues to appeal to moderate voters.
• President Trump has held two rallies in South Carolina in three weeks to support Graham, with a third visit scheduled in Rock Hill on October 29.
• Republicans are concerned that Graham's underperformance could hurt other GOP candidates in state and congressional races, a phenomenon Rep. Nancy Mace described as a 'ripple effect'.
• Graham, the sister of the late Sen. Lindsey Graham, faces criticism for low name recognition and perceived nepotism, while Andrews is drawing support from 22% of Republicans and 59% of independents.

Background

The race has become a focal point for the 2026 Senate majority, as South Carolina has not elected a Democrat to the chamber since 1998. The contest began after the death of Sen. Lindsey Graham, which led to Darline Graham's appointment. Recent polling indicates the seat is no longer safe for Republicans, with the state having been won by President Trump by 18 points in 2024.

How outlets are covering it

The Washington Post emphasizes the fractured state of the Republican Party over Graham's candidacy. WCIV highlights the concerns of Rep. Nancy Mace, who believes voters are 'anti-Graham' rather than 'anti-Republican' and warns of down-ballot consequences. MS NOW focuses on Andrews' centrist strategy, noting her willingness to criticize her own party to win over moderate voters. The ECU poll provides a data-driven perspective, showing Graham's lead is driven almost entirely by her 93% support among Republicans, while Andrews leads among independents and younger voters.

Why it matters

The outcome of this race could determine the balance of power in the U.S. Senate. A loss for Graham would mark the first time South Carolina has elected a Democrat to the Senate in nearly 30 years and could signal a shift in the political landscape for the state and the nation.

What to watch

President Trump is scheduled to hold another rally in Rock Hill on October 29. The election is on November 3, with Libertarian candidate Kasie Whitener and Constitution Party candidate Mark Hackett also on the ballot.