"Predicting the Presidential Race on Labor Day 2024: What We Know So Far"

The upcoming presidential race in 2024 is expected to be decided by a small number of voters in a handful of swing states. The number of genuinely competitive states is shrinking, with only four to eight states likely to be in play. Swing states such as Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina are expected to be the most fiercely contested. The shrinking map could lead to overwhelming advertising campaigns in these battleground states. Democrats may have a slight advantage, as they start closer to the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win the presidency. However, the campaigns may also test the waters in more states than in 2020. Notably, Ohio and Florida, traditionally fiercely contested battlegrounds, are absent from the list of competitive states.