Quinnipiac Poll: Democrats Lead House Control by 11 Points as Trump Hits Record Lows on Economy and Iran

Key points

• Democrats lead Republicans 49% to 38% for House control, an 11-point advantage.
• Trump’s overall approval rating is 33%, with 59% disapproving.
• Approval for Trump’s handling of the economy (32%), Russia-Ukraine war (28%), and Canada trade (28%) are all at or near all-time lows.
• 56% of voters say Trump is too tough on Canada, and 70% oppose the renaming of Lake Ontario to Lake America.
• 39% of voters prefer keeping U.S. forces in Iran while negotiating a peace deal, while 30% want a withdrawal without a deal.

Background

This poll follows a July 2026 Quinnipiac survey that recorded Trump’s approval at a low of 32% amid growing opposition to the Iran war and economic concerns. Recent coverage also highlighted waning GOP loyalty to Trump over his handling of the Iran conflict and broad public opposition to his Canada trade policies and the Lake Ontario renaming.

How outlets are covering it

Quinnipiac University emphasizes the sharp 11-point Democratic lead for the House and record-low approval ratings for Trump on key issues like the economy and foreign policy. The Guardian highlights a broader shift in party identification, noting that 49% of voters now lean Democrat compared to 39% leaning Republican, a reversal from the 2024 election. CNN focuses on the 'enthusiasm gap' among Republicans, suggesting that declining base support for Trump is a critical factor ahead of the midterms. All sources agree that Trump’s second term has faced significant backlash, particularly regarding the Iran war, economic performance, and trade disputes with Canada.

Why it matters

The poll indicates a significant shift in public opinion ahead of the 2026 midterms, with Democrats gaining a substantial advantage in House control. Trump’s record-low approval ratings on critical issues like the economy and foreign policy suggest deep dissatisfaction with his second term. The strong opposition to his Canada trade policies and the Lake Ontario renaming highlights the political risks of his foreign and domestic strategies. These findings suggest that Republicans may face significant challenges in retaining control of the House, while Democrats are positioned to capitalize on voter discontent.

What to watch

The midterm elections are less than two months away. The poll suggests that Democrats are well-positioned to win control of the House, while Republicans may struggle to retain their majority. Trump’s administration will likely face increased scrutiny over its handling of the Iran war, economic policies, and trade disputes with Canada. The outcome of the midterms will be a key indicator of public sentiment toward Trump’s second term and the broader political landscape in the United States.