Siena Poll: Hochul Holds 9-Point Lead Over Blakeman as Endorsements Shape NY Race

Key points

• Hochul leads Blakeman 50% to 41%, a 9-point margin that is slightly narrower than the 10-point gap seen in August.
• 66% of likely voters expect Hochul to win, including 37% of Republicans, despite her sub-50% job approval rating.
• Blakeman leads among Republicans (88-8%) and independents (44-39), while Hochul dominates New York City (61-27%).
• Voters view President Trump’s endorsement of Blakeman as a negative (51% vs. 30%) and Mayor Mamdani’s endorsement of Hochul as a positive (50% vs. 30%).
• In other races, Attorney General Letitia James leads 52-39 and Comptroller Tom DiNapoli leads 56-33, both with strong incumbent advantages.
• 74% of voters oppose renaming Lake Ontario to Lake America, and 63% oppose new large data centers in their areas.

Background

In August, Siena’s first likely-voter poll showed Hochul leading Blakeman by 10 points (49-39). The current September poll (Sept. 11-17) shows a slight narrowing of that gap to 9 points, with Hochul’s favorability and job approval ratings edging into positive territory for the first time. Blakeman’s campaign has struggled with name recognition, with nearly one-third of voters having no opinion of him. The race is part of a broader mid-term cycle where Democrats hold leads in most statewide offices, but voter confidence in the election process remains low, with only 32% saying it is 'very likely' that votes will be accurately counted.

How outlets are covering it

The New York Post and WRGB both highlight the 9-point lead and the impact of endorsements, noting that Trump’s support is a liability for Blakeman while Mamdani’s support helps Hochul. The Siena Research Institute provides the detailed breakdown, emphasizing that while Hochul leads overall, Blakeman is competitive among independents and in upstate New York. Spectrum News focuses on the upcoming debates, noting that the governor’s debate on Oct. 13 will be the first held under the Public Campaign Finance Board’s requirements. All sources agree that the race is highly regionalized, with Hochul dominating NYC and Blakeman holding leads in upstate and suburban areas.

Why it matters

The narrowing gap suggests a competitive race, but Hochul’s strong performance in New York City and among Democrats, combined with the negative perception of Trump’s endorsement, may secure her victory. Blakeman’s challenge lies in overcoming the 2-to-1 Democratic enrollment edge and improving name recognition. The outcome will influence the balance of power in New York state government and reflect broader national trends in mid-term elections.

What to watch

Spectrum News will host three debates for statewide offices in October, with the governor’s debate on Oct. 13. Campaigns will likely focus on regional strengths and endorsements in the final six weeks. Voter confidence in election integrity may become a key issue as the election approaches.