Siena Poll: Hochul’s Lead Narrows to 9 Points as Blakeman Gains Ground
A new Siena poll shows Gov. Kathy Hochul leading challenger Bruce Blakeman by 9 points in the New York gubernatorial race, a narrowing from last month. While Hochul’s favorability remains below 50%, 66% of voters expect her to win. Blakeman’s campaign is hampered by a negative view of Trump’s endorsement, while Hochul benefits from Mayor Mamdani’s support. Democrats hold leads in other statewide races, but voters express low confidence in the integrity of the upcoming election.
Key points
- Hochul leads Blakeman 50-41%, up from 49-39% in August, with a 9-point margin.
- 66% of likely voters, including 37% of Republicans, believe Hochul will win the election.
- 51% of voters view Trump’s endorsement of Blakeman as a negative for his campaign.
- 50% of voters view Mayor Mamdani’s endorsement of Hochul as a positive for her campaign.
- Hochul leads in New York City 61-27%, while Blakeman leads upstate 47-44%.
- 63% of voters oppose new large data centers in their area after the moratorium expires.
Background
In August, Siena’s first likely-voter poll showed Hochul leading by 10 points (49-39%), with Blakeman gaining ground among independents. Hochul’s favorability was negative at that time, and she dominated New York City but trailed in the suburbs. The current poll shows her favorability and job approval edging into positive territory, though still below 50%.
How outlets are covering it
Siena Research Institute, the primary source, emphasizes the narrowing gap and the high expectation of a Hochul victory despite her sub-50% approval. The New York Post highlights the single-digit margin as a potential upset risk, noting that Blakeman is closer to Hochul than Lee Zeldin was at the same stage in 2022. Politico frames the 9-point lead as 'too close for comfort' for Democrats, stressing the need for Hochul to run up the score to help down-ballot candidates in swing House districts. The Buffalo News simply notes the shrinking lead without additional analysis. All outlets agree on the core numbers but differ on the strategic implications for the broader Democratic ticket.
Why it matters
The narrowing margin in a deep-blue state signals a competitive environment for Republicans in the 2026 midterms. Hochul’s inability to cross 50% approval, despite a high win expectation, suggests vulnerability. The negative perception of Trump’s endorsement and the positive perception of Mamdani’s endorsement indicate that national and local political alliances are influencing state-level outcomes. Voter skepticism about election integrity and opposition to data centers and the renaming of Lake Ontario reflect broader cultural and policy tensions that may impact turnout and engagement.
What to watch
Hochul’s campaign is launching new TV ads tying Blakeman to Trump, while Blakeman’s campaign focuses on affordability and safety. The one-year moratorium on large data centers is set to expire, potentially leading to new construction. The November 3 election will determine control of the state legislature and the outcome of competitive House races in Long Island and the Hudson Valley.
- Siena Poll Of Likely New York State Voters: Hochul 50%, Blakeman 41% (Hochul 49-39% in August) Siena Poll
- Bruce Blakeman within single digits of Kathy Hochul in NY governor’s race: poll New York Post
- Blakeman’s short poll vaulting Politico
- New York Governor’s Race Tightens, With Blakeman Continuing To Sway Independent Voters, as Debate on the Horizon The New York Sun
- Hochul hits 50% in new Siena poll, but lead over Blakeman shrinks Buffalo News
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