Siena Poll Shows Hochul Widening Lead to 14 Points as Mamdani’s NYC Popularity Surges

Key points

• Siena University poll shows Hochul leading Blakeman 54% to 40% among likely voters, up from a 50% to 41% lead in September.
• Hochul’s favorability rating reached 51%, the first time a majority has viewed her favorably during her governorship.
• Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s favorability in New York City rose to 69%, up from 60% in September, boosting Hochul’s standing in the urban core.
• Blakeman’s campaign accused pollsters of voter suppression, claiming internal surveys show a 'neck-and-neck' race, though no figures were provided.
• Democrats maintain double-digit leads in other statewide races, including Attorney General and Comptroller, and the generic congressional ballot.

Background

In September, Siena polling showed Hochul leading by 9 points, with Blakeman holding advantages among independents and in upstate regions. Recent archive coverage noted that while Hochul’s lead had narrowed slightly from August, her favorability remained below 50%. The current poll represents a significant shift, with Hochul’s support among independents reversing a previous deficit and her overall favorability crossing the 50% threshold for the first time in her term.

How outlets are covering it

Siena pollster Steven Greenberg emphasized that Blakeman is 'running out of time' to close the gap, noting that Hochul leads among independents by 11 points, a critical demographic for statewide victory. In contrast, Blakeman’s campaign dismissed the polls as 'voter suppression tactics,' pointing to Marist and Quinnipiac polls that showed him leading among independents. Marist found Blakeman ahead 49% to 39% among independents, while Quinnipiac showed a 51% to 44% lead for Blakeman in that group. Blakeman’s campaign also highlighted differences in demographic makeup across polls. Meanwhile, early voters in upstate New York cited utility costs and immigration enforcement as key factors, with some supporting Blakeman for his record in Nassau County and others voting Democratic due to concerns over immigration tactics.

Why it matters

The widening lead and rising favorability for Hochul suggest a strong path to reelection, despite Blakeman’s efforts to frame the race as close. The poll highlights the importance of independent voters and regional dynamics, with Hochul’s dominance in New York City offsetting tighter races in upstate and suburban areas. The endorsement of President Trump remains a liability for Blakeman, with 48% of voters viewing it negatively, while Mamdani’s endorsement is seen as a positive for Hochul by 45% of voters. These dynamics will likely shape the final weeks of the campaign and the outcome of the November 3 election.

What to watch

With Election Day approaching on November 3, the focus will shift to final campaign efforts and voter turnout. Blakeman’s campaign may continue to challenge the poll results, while Hochul’s campaign is expected to leverage its lead and the positive perception of Mamdani’s endorsement. The outcome of the governor’s race will likely influence the results in other statewide races and the generic congressional ballot, where Democrats also hold significant leads.