Texas GOP Pouring $188M into Paxton, but Spanish Ad Spend Lags Behind Democratic Efforts

Key points

• Paxton-aligned groups spent $188 million on ads since September, with only $4.2 million (2%) directed to Spanish-language media, according to AdImpact.
• In the 15th and 34th congressional districts, where over 70% of voters are Hispanic, Democratic groups have outspent Republicans on Spanish ads by more than 2-to-1.
• Democratic nominee James Talarico has maintained a slight lead in polls, with Latino support hovering in the mid-50s to low 60s, while Paxton’s support sits in the 30s.
• Republican super PACs, including Texas PAC, are paying higher ad rates than the Talarico campaign, limiting the reach of their massive spending despite the financial outlay.
• GOP insiders worry that the lack of Spanish outreach signals a disregard for Latino voters, who are increasingly unhappy with the GOP due to economic costs and perceived betrayal on immigration promises.

Background

The 2026 Texas Senate race has become the most expensive in state history, with total spending projected to reach $440 million. Republicans, who had dominated Texas politics for decades, faced a primary upset when incumbent Senator John Cornyn was defeated by Ken Paxton after President Trump endorsed Paxton. This shift forced the GOP to divert significant resources from other battlegrounds to save the Texas seat. Democrats, who had lost statewide races for 32 years, are now attempting to end that streak by leveraging strong Latino support, a demographic that had previously shifted toward Republicans in 2024.

How outlets are covering it

The Texas Tribune highlights the stark disparity in Spanish-language ad spending, noting that while Republicans dominate overall airtime, their outreach to Latino voters is minimal. CNN emphasizes the sheer scale of Republican spending, describing it as a 'money pit' that exceeds combined spending in Michigan and Maine, yet questions its efficacy given the high costs paid by super PACs. Politico focuses on internal GOP anxiety, revealing that party leaders are pressuring Trump’s MAGA Inc. to increase spending after leaked audio of Paxton criticizing Trump’s convention. Axios underscores the financial intensity, noting that Texas PAC spent $131 million in just 17 days, but points out that Democrats are stepping up their own spending to counter the GOP blitz. All sources agree that the race remains competitive, with Talarico holding a narrow lead in most polls despite the massive Republican financial advantage.

Why it matters

The outcome of the Texas Senate race could determine control of the U.S. Senate and signal the future of Republican support among Latino voters. The lack of Spanish-language advertising by the GOP may indicate a strategic miscalculation, as Latino voters are increasingly pivotal in Texas politics. If the GOP fails to secure this demographic, it could face broader challenges in future elections, particularly in states with growing Latino populations. The race also highlights the tension between national Republican priorities and local campaign strategies, as the party diverts resources from other battlegrounds to save a seat in a traditionally red state.

What to watch

Early voting in Texas begins in less than three weeks, and the race remains competitive. Republicans are expected to continue spending heavily, with MAGA Inc. and the Senate Leadership Fund likely to increase their ad buys in the final weeks. Democrats are ramping up their own spending, with Senate Majority PAC launching new ad campaigns. The outcome will depend on whether the massive Republican spending can overcome the Latino voter gap and whether Talarico can maintain his lead in the final weeks of the campaign.