Texas Midterms: Polls Show Tied Senate Race and GOP Loss of Hispanic Support

Key points

• The Texas Southern University poll shows the U.S. Senate race between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico is a dead heat, with Talarico leading by one point (47% to 46%).
• In the governor's race, incumbent Greg Abbott leads Democrat Gina Hinojosa by four points (49% to 45%), though his unfavorability rating now exceeds his favorability.
• A Cook Political Report and TelevisaUnivision poll finds Democrats leading Republicans among Hispanic voters by 2 to 1, reversing gains made by Republicans in 2024.
• Economic concerns, including the cost of living and tariffs, are the top priority for Hispanic voters, outweighing immigration issues.
• The Texas 2036 poll indicates 38% of voters expect to split their ballots, and 24% remain undecided, highlighting a volatile electorate.

Background

Recent polling has shown fluctuating margins in Texas races. A September Emerson College/Nexstar poll also showed the Senate race tied at 47% to 46%, while a Mason-Dixon poll had Abbott leading by 7 points. The current data suggests a tightening race for Democrats, particularly among moderate Republicans and Hispanic voters.

How outlets are covering it

FOX 7 Austin emphasizes the internal GOP fracture, noting that 27% of moderate Republicans plan to vote for Talarico, and predicts over $100 million will be spent to counter this. The Center Square highlights the dramatic shift in Hispanic support, noting that 18% of Hispanic voters who backed Trump in 2024 now disapprove of his job performance. The Baylor Lariat provides a neutral overview of the ballot, focusing on voter registration deadlines and candidate platforms without emphasizing the polling volatility.

Why it matters

The loss of Hispanic support and internal GOP divisions could determine the outcome of key statewide races in Texas, potentially shifting the balance of power in the U.S. Senate and state government. The economy is now the dominant issue, challenging the GOP's previous reliance on immigration and border security.

What to watch

Campaigns will likely intensify spending in the final weeks before November 3, with Republicans focusing on countering Talarico's favorability and Democrats aiming to capitalize on economic concerns. Voter registration deadlines in Texas are October 5, and mail ballot applications are due by October 23.