Texas Senate race becomes a $300M Republican money pit as Paxton raises $18M

Key points

• Paxton’s campaign raised $18 million in Q3 2026, doubling his Q2 total of $9 million, though cash-on-hand figures were not disclosed.
• Republican-aligned groups, including the Senate Leadership Fund and Texas PAC, are planning to spend over $166 million in Texas, outspending Democrats by more than 5-to-1.
• Texas PAC spent $131 million in 17 days, with a recent two-day ad blitz costing over $61.4 million, making it the most expensive Senate race of the year.
• Paxton’s campaign announced a $20 million ad buy, one of the largest in Texas Senate history, while Talarico’s team has booked approximately $35 million in ads for the final two months.
• Public polling shows Talarico with a small lead, but Paxton’s internal poll shows him ahead by three points; both candidates remain closely matched.

Background

This race emerged as a major battleground after President Trump endorsed Paxton over incumbent John Cornyn in the primary, leading to Cornyn’s defeat. The contest has become a focal point for Republican midterm strategy, with significant resources diverted from other states to support Paxton, who faces scrutiny over past controversies and a 2023 impeachment attempt.

How outlets are covering it

POLITICO highlights Paxton’s strong fundraising and the impact of Republican donor rallies, while CNN emphasizes the unprecedented scale of Republican spending, noting it exceeds combined spending in Michigan and Maine. Axios focuses on the rapid pace of Texas PAC’s expenditures, describing it as a rescue effort for Paxton. Legis1 provides detailed financial breakdowns, showing Texas PAC’s cumulative spending and the concentration of funds in the Texas race. All sources agree on the race’s high cost and competitive nature, but differ in emphasis: POLITICO on campaign resilience, CNN on the financial imbalance, and Axios on the urgency of the spending surge.

Why it matters

The Texas Senate race is a critical test for Republican midterm strategy, with massive spending reflecting the party’s determination to retain the seat despite national headwinds. The financial disparity and competitive polling underscore the race’s significance in shaping the broader Senate majority and the effectiveness of super PACs in influencing outcomes.

What to watch

Both campaigns are expected to continue heavy spending through Election Day, with Democrats potentially increasing support for Talarico. The race’s outcome will likely hinge on voter turnout and the effectiveness of ad campaigns in a closely divided state, with results potentially influencing the balance of power in the U.S. Senate.